Chapter 12 Case A and Case B (Part 1)
After Cole left, only Japanese were left in the venue, so everyone relaxed and prepared to speak freely - even if foreigners were present, they always felt strange. But in sharp contrast to the past when they were crowded with people at the meeting, the venue was relatively quiet, and many people fell into deep thoughts about the latest ideas for the Germans.
Hirohito named Ishihara Kanir and said first: "Ishihara's Deputy Minister Ishihara has a lot of communication with the German envoy in the early stage, so you can listen to his opinions first."
"Your Majesty, lords." Ishihara Kanir stood up and cleared his throat, saying in a calm tone, "First of all, it should be noted that the major policies proposed by the Germans this time were different from those when the Three Kingdoms Alliance Treaty was signed, and it was also very different from the situation when the Soviet, German, Japanese and American wars last year. Overall, the Germans were trapped in the same problem as us: that is, fighting with a big country, having a clear advantage but the enemy refused to surrender, and the war inevitably entered a long-term trend. Now the enemy is more stubborn because of the new strong aid of the United States, and its will to fight and resist is becoming stronger, forcing us to urgently seek breakthroughs. The Germans are relying on us.
The Soviet Union was attacked, but judging from the current situation, the German head of state seemed to have given up this attempt, or they believed that even if we advance northward, we could only restrain part of the Soviet power and could not change the balance of the entire Soviet-German battlefield. Therefore, the German strategy began to transform from a quick decisive battle to a total war and a long-term war. Germany had launched the General ******* on September 1, and all factories implemented a three-shift system and the economic system was completely militarized. This was unimaginable in the past - at that time everyone thought that Germany's strategy was blitzkrieg. At the same time, in politics, Germany proposed the idea of the "European Union" and was ready to unify the forces of the whole Europe, especially Western Europe, to compete with Britain and the United States.
To sum up, Germany’s hope for us is:
First, withdraw troops from the Chinese battlefield, at least partially withdrawn;
Second, reduce the defense system of the Nanyang battlefield and focus on operating the core national defense circle to gradually resist and consume the US military's agility;
Third, the main force of the army and navy advanced westward, cooperated with Germany to occupy the Middle East, and opened up the Indian Ocean transportation line;
Fourth, continue to maintain combat against the United States, exhausted through long-term combat, and slackened the United States' will to combat.
If you are familiar with my past statements, you will definitely understand that the first, second and fourth points are roughly consistent with the views I usually hold. I did not consider the third point at that time, but the Westward Advance Plan has always been a backup strategic choice for the Army Province, and we have a clear combat strategy.
Through the past year of combat, there are several aspects that should admit that there was a problem with our original judgment:
First, the American counterattack was not in the second half of 1943, but was advanced to September this year, marking the launch of the Guadalang Battle, which accelerated for nearly one year;
Secondly, the United States' counterattack direction is not from east to west, but from Australia as its base, advancing from south to north, layer by layer. The two sides' competition area is close to Australia and far away from Japan. The United States has the advantage of equipment and supplies. The current situation is not good for me;
Third, given the changes in combat forms, the "Nine-Disk Operation" is no longer feasible, and the decisive opportunity for combat against the United States will no longer exist. Even if we seize the opportunity tomorrow to eliminate the only three aircraft carriers that the Americans currently have, the situation of the war will inevitably become long-term and persistent;
Fourth, if time enters 1943, especially in the second half of the year, the balance of power between Japan and the United States will be greatly lost and the battle situation will further deteriorate."
Everyone knows the fourth point mentioned by Ishihara Kanir: the United States has started large-scale shipbuilding due to the Pearl Harbor incident. The production and construction cycle of aircraft carriers is about two years. At the end of 1943, the new shipbuilding will form combat effectiveness. Although Japan launched the "Maru Five Plan" before the war between Japan and the United States, the core of the shipbuilding plan was still battleships. After the setback of the Midway Battle, it launched the "Five Plan" to turn the shipbuilding core to aircraft carriers, preparing to build five "Five" and fifteen Yunlong (medium-sized aircraft carriers), but it is expected that it will not be completed until 1950. The United States will have 30 aircraft carriers of all sizes from the end of next year to the beginning of 1944, which is something that Japan is unable to compete with.
Ishihara Kanir continued to state: "Even after the setback in Midway, after the Guadalam Battle, our naval force was still roughly slightly better than the strength of the US Pacific Fleet, but this advantage can last for up to one year from now on. Even if the Marufruct and the Five-Year Plan are smoothly promoted, our naval force will be only half or even less by the United States by the end of next year. We know this situation, and the United States is more aware of their time on their side. There are very few ways to solve the above difficulties. Unless we are willing to accept the humiliating contract, we can only continue to fight. The national policy proposal I put forward is:
First, based on the strengthening of details and optimization, we should roughly accept the four policies proposed by Germany. On the issue of China, Germany should mediate intermediate to ensure our country's interests;
Second, it is recommended that the Soviet Union and Germany make peace, and our country can serve as an intermediary to mediate, so that the German army can free up its forces to attack India from the Middle East;
Third, the two sides should establish a joint meeting system and send high-level generals to fight and coordinate;
Fourth, Germany should provide support to our country's steel, ships and other equipment, technology and intelligence, and Germany will ensure that its oil supply to our country after occupying the Middle East;
Fifth, if the Indian Ocean strategy is launched, Madagascar should be seized as soon as possible and serve as a military base in the Indian Ocean, and Germany and Italy must be guarded together if necessary."
Ishihara Kanr summarized the more feasible goals of the Three Kingdoms Alliance in one sentence: to neutralize the Soviet Union, defeat the United Kingdom first, and finally, the Three Kingdoms Alliance concentrates its efforts against the United States!
If Cole's speech was only the initial shock, Ishihara Kanir's speech, known as a stoic general, caused an uproar. The only harmonious thing is that many generals of the army did not stand up so fiercely when they heard the word withdrawing from China, because Germany and Ishihara pointed them to India, which seemed to be more valuable and easier to conquer, and they did not have to go north to fight the Soviets, which was in line with their preferences.
Faced with the discussion venue, host Ichina Ugaki asked Yamamoto Izuru in a deep voice: "His Majesty, is there any difficulty for the navy in combat in the Indian Ocean?"
"In terms of combat alone, the navy is not difficult. At most, it can be regarded as an attack similar to Pearl Harbor, but..." Yamamoto Irisaurus added, "Indian Ocean operations will not be able to start from assembly, departure, and fight to the end of the return. This will not be possible without 4-6 months. In this way, the direction of the South Ocean will face major problems, and many islands will not be able to be protected. The Americans will not only attack the absolute defense circle, but may even harass the local area."
Hokyoto Fushimimiya added: "At present, the Imperial Navy still has an advantage. In the Indian Ocean, whether it is Britain, the United States alone or in joint combat with Britain and the United States, our navy is sure to win the battle. However, this advantage period is probably not as good as the year mentioned by Deputy Ishihara, and it is estimated that there will be 6-8 months left. Moreover, as General Yamamoto said, once the main force advances westward, the problem of the South China Sea will deteriorate sharply."
"If you don't move westward, can the Nanyang Islands be kept?"
“I’m afraid it’s difficult…”
Army deputy Naemi Inoue stood up and interrupted, "Since you all agree to withdraw troops from China and reduce the occupied areas in Southeast Asia, why can't we make peace with the Americans based on this?"
"Make peace?", "What kind of conditions are there to make peace?" There was a lot of discussion at the meeting.
Inoue Narimi and Yamamoto Iroku looked at each other, and after receiving praise, he spoke: "Master Yamamoto and I think they can negotiate on the following conditions:
First, except for the special situation in North China, Qiongzhou Island and some key port cities were leased to us, the rest of the Chinese dispatched troops retreated in batches and the retreat was completed within three years;
Second, the Nanjing Wang Jingwei regime should be maintained, and if necessary, promote the reintegration of the two sides with a strategy similar to the 1927 "Ninghan merger, jointly prevent the Communist Party". China recognizes the specialization of interests between Manchukuo and Manchuria and Mongolia;
Third, our control range in Nanyang direction retreated to the absolute national defense circle;
Fourth, the original colonies of Southeast Asian and American countries were independent of the Philippines, the Dutch East India and the French Indochina Peninsula, and ensured Japan's special interests;
Fifth, if the United States is willing to recognize the empire's special status in the East Asian continent on this basis, our country can withdraw from the Axis Treaty and join the British-American alliance and send navies to Europe for combat."
Maeda Taki, who has always been in conflict with Hideki Tojo and plans to be the new director of the army education, is Lieutenant General (the 16th generation of the Maeda Taki family of Kaga vassal Maeda, who was a famous Japanese warrior general and one of the five elders of Toyotomi Hideyoshi) immediately stood up and opposed: "This condition is too great, especially some of the conditions on the Chinese battlefield must be modified, otherwise after fighting for five years, we will return to the starting point. How can we be worthy of the hundreds of thousands of soldiers who sacrificed our lives?"
"Then how do you think you're changing?"
"The Chinese side is based on the current line of actual control, and the Manchuria and Mongolia region is unified and managed by Manchuria; the territory of the Wang Jingwei regime is limited to parts of North China and East China, and requires the establishment of a joint regime with the Chongqing regime in the form of a confederacy. As a concession, the remaining territory currently occupied by our army can be returned to the Chongqing Chiang regime."
"Americans will not approve of your revision!"
"Your Excellency's conditions will not be recognized by the frontline soldiers!"
"you!"
Seeing that the two were about to start arguing, Ugaki Ichizuru quickly came out to smooth things over: "Okay, okay, everyone discusses decisions, and if you have different opinions, you can argue, there is no need to argue in front of His Majesty."
Many people are considering why Emperor Hirohito re-elected two corners of the Navy's anti-war triangle to re-nominate two corners of the Navy's anti-war triangle to the important post of the Navy Ministry, and at the same time, he also put the obviously war-oriented King Fushimimiya Hakukong in the position of the General Secretary of the Military Command. This seems to be a contradictory signal, but the Minister of Inner Takaichi Kido knew that this was a two-handed way of Hirohito's left and right division - he could not let all voices be too consistent, like the last time the Tojo Cabinet, the Chief of the Military Command Nagano dared to act without hiding the Army and the Cabinet. This situation is really too dangerous. (To be continued.)
Chapter completed!