Chapter 454 The Broken Bull Market
After Chen Weidong listened, he remained silent for a long time.
Although many things have changed due to his rebirth, some historical trends are still repeating themselves in the same order as the script.
In the final analysis, the reborn person is just a slightly bigger fish in the torrent of history.
During this period, no matter whether it was ordinary investors or securities investment institutions, no one could have imagined that the Shanghai Composite Index would create a historical high for A-shares with an inconspicuous small positive line.
Is 6124 really the last "swan song" for billions of investors?
"Awei?" Lin Zeju saw something was wrong with Chen Weidong's face and heard his heavy breathing, so he whispered: "I think there is no need to worry so much. The current domestic economic situation is doing well. Although the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has affected
It has begun to spread, but it will still take some time for it to spread and actually affect us. I believe there will definitely be a domestic response plan."
"As for the stock market, when the adjustment is completed, it should reach new highs. At least before the opening of the Olympic Games, there will still be market prices... I read the "Securities Times" sent by my secretary two days ago. China Merchants Securities'
A manager also said that he would watch the Olympics at 8848 o'clock and realize the Mount Everest plan..."
"Ahem... Then how high do you personally think the stock market will rise?"
Chen Weidong almost lost his breath when he heard him say 8848.
"Ten thousand points, at least ten thousand points! The Hong Kong index has almost risen to 32,000 points this round. I am optimistic about the development of the mainland, especially South China. Over time, it is almost certain that the economic aggregate will exceed that of Hong Kong!"
When Lin Zeju said these words, his face was full of relaxation and confidence.
Over the years, he has spent most of his time in the mainland.
Being at the forefront of reform and opening up, I have witnessed the domestic economic take-off with my own eyes. During this process, everyone's wealth has grown rapidly, and their living standards have improved significantly. Everything is so smooth and beautiful.
Under such a general background, it is normal for people to be a little blindly confident and even a little impetuous.
However, Chen Weidong did not expect that even Lin Zeju, a top second-generation rich man, would be so confident that the Shanghai Composite Index would exceed 10,000 points. It is conceivable how far people's enthusiasm for the financial market has reached.
He hesitated, took a deep breath and said: "I agree with your point of view. South China City will definitely surpass Xiangjiang in the future and become the new financial center of Asia. Even according to the current GDP growth rate, we can boldly predict that within three months
By the year, China's economic aggregate will surpass the island countries and become the world's second largest economy."
"But in our country, finance and the real economy are completely different things."
"If nothing else happens, 6124 is basically the historical high point of A-shares. It will definitely not go up for at least 20 years."
As he spoke, he raised two fingers and shook them.
"What? This is impossible! It can't rise back to 6,000 points in twenty years? Has our economic development stagnated? Or is there some major change and it has gone downhill?"
Lin Zeju's expression changed drastically, and he stood up from the sofa in a hurry.
Normally, for a country whose economy is growing rapidly, their stock market will definitely be upward in the long term.
Finance is a derivative of the real economy. The two complement each other and restrict each other.
The macro trend is basically consistent.
If the financial market remains depressed for a long time, there is a high probability that there is a problem with the national economy.
"Nothing is impossible. Crisis always comes when you are proud. The Shanghai Composite Index started from 998 points in 2005 and rose to 6124 points in just over two years, an increase of more than five times. Such a crazy trend, looking at the world
It’s just us.”
"At such a high position, as long as there is a slight external force, it can easily cause a stampede and a herd effect. By then, it will even become uncontrollable."
Chen Weidong sighed slightly, with a hint of worry in his calm expression.
"You mean that the subprime mortgage crisis will be the trigger for the stock market to plummet?"
Lin Zeju really didn't believe that the stock market would collapse soon, and said: "A-shares have already fallen by 20% recently. If it continues to fall, won't the China Securities Regulatory Commission care about it? Will the state intervene?"
"I will control it, of course I will, but I will just try to prevent it from plummeting or falling sharply. After all, the mission of this bull market has been completed. As long as the next trend is not too ugly, I can accept it."
After Chen Weidong finished speaking, he frowned, as if he thought of something troubling again.
It has to be said that most investors do not know that the existence of the China Securities Regulatory Commission is essentially to help companies raise funds better, rather than to allow investors to make money in this market.
In the eyes of decision-makers, this bull market was almost over on May 30.
The monetary policy at that time had already undergone a major turning point, and the country began to increase the deposit reserve ratio.
This adjustment means that the entire market will begin to be short of money, gradually reducing the total amount of currency in circulation in the market.
The 530 incident was a clear signal of market change sent by the market to investors.
It's just that most people don't realize this, and everyone is carried away by the skyrocketing market prices.
As for why the market is still rising after 530, the main reason is that the "main funds" have not completely escaped. They need to move as quietly as possible to avoid triggering systemic risks.
If public funds are all idiots, then the traders in the "national team" definitely have some skills.
Shortly after the share-trading reform information was released, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the entry of foreign-funded institutions into the Chinese stock market. Many people thought that foreigners were allowed to copy the bottom of A-shares, but they were actually wrong.
It takes a long time for foreign institutions to get approval to buy stocks, and by the time they enter the market, it will already be a bull market.
Who bought the bottom at 998? Of course Chen Weidong, as a reborn person, knew that it was the social security fund!
This chapter is not over yet, please click on the next page to continue reading the exciting content! They almost captured the entire market perfectly, began to reduce their positions after the "530 Incident", and finally got out of the market completely.
After 530, the bull market has existed in name only, and the number of daily limits for small-cap stocks has significantly decreased.
Market divergences have become wider.
At this time, the word that appears most often is the "28th phenomenon."
That is: 20% of stocks have a chance to rise, and the other 80% can only linger in a narrow space.
This 20% is large-cap stocks.
Obviously, when the market is already at a high level, the sudden dance of elephants does not mean that the market is challenging higher mountains. They are most likely providing cover for certain funds.
After all, large-cap stocks are usually mature and stable companies, but because their performance is too stable, their growth space is relatively limited, and there is no story to tell, so it is difficult for them to be speculated by market funds.
But they all have one characteristic, that is, "high weight".
As long as their stock prices are raised, it can create the illusion that the market is in good shape and allow some funds in small-cap stocks to secretly withdraw.
In this process, senior figures in the securities industry will continue to advocate the "price-to-earnings ratio" to the market.
"Look, with such good performance and such a low price-to-earnings ratio, it wouldn't be too much for the company's stock price to double, right?"
"The market is so good and you haven't made any money? Only large-cap stocks haven't risen much. Get on the bus quickly, otherwise you will miss the last opportunity!"
....
As a result, countless investors who entered the market in the second half of the bull market but had not yet made any money have poured into large-cap stocks and started playing "value investing."
The result is naturally obvious.
"No wonder you repeatedly told Chen Jie to withdraw when the market was so good. The water here is too deep."
Lin Zeju was a little scared. He picked up the water glass on the coffee table and drank it all in one breath. Then he calmly said: "With so many investors being kept in the dark, and taking over the market from a high position, is there really no problem?
Chapter completed!