Chapter 134: Two Difficulties
This is the situation this year. If Sal is a smoothly developed company, there is obviously no problem in transferring shares in such a valuation, but Sal is obviously not a stable-developing company.
On the contrary, SAL is now in a stage of rapid development. If next year, SAL's expected revenue will reach or exceed one billion US dollars, then in this case, SAL's valuation will soar to US$30 billion. The valuation gap with this year's 10 billion US dollars is so big that it is equivalent to more than double the price.
So Cai Siqiang, Dong Feng and Zhao Jianwu would not transfer part of their shares now unless they had no choice but to transfer part of their shares, and they were unwilling to do anything.
However, if you want to discount the valuation next year, you have to convince venture capitalists that the company can achieve this income next year, which is very difficult. After all, there is too much uncertainty in the future, and the leap in this expected income is too large. This expectation risk is extremely great for venture capitalists.
Of course, there is no way to deal with this kind of risk. If the shareholders of the entrepreneurial team are very sure that their company achieves its expected goals, everyone can reach an agreement through another method: that is, sign a bet agreement.
For venture capital companies, entrepreneurial teams need to raise profit forecasts. For example, SAL predicts a profit of US$660 million next year, so the valuation is about US$20 billion. OK, there is no problem. Let's talk about investing based on this price, such as investing one billion US dollars, and valuing it at US$20 billion, that is 5% of the shares.
If the company's profit reaches or exceeds the target value of 660 million next year, there is no problem with everything, and this billion US dollars is this five percent of the shares. However, if the expected market volatility is not reached, such as only 200 million US dollars, then the valuation of the company is only 6 billion now, then the shares that the original invested billion US dollars will be one-sixth, that is, the venture capital shares will change and account for about 16.7% of the company's total shares.
Therefore, for the betting agreement, it is very risky for entrepreneurial teams. For example, in the above example, if the initial investment share accounts for 20%, then the company's control may change hands directly if the expected profit is not fulfilled and the gap is large.
Therefore, the entrepreneurial team will not easily adopt this bet agreement unless it is absolutely necessary. After all, the risk to the entrepreneurial team itself is too high and the benefits to venture capital companies are too great.
However, this thing is also a double-edged sword. Venture capital companies also have security requirements. If there is great uncertainty, venture capital has to raise the asking price to dilute the risk.
Cai Siqiang did not want to sign the betting agreement, but the gap between the expected income this year and the expected income next year is quite large. Therefore, it is not ideal to value the company based on this year's revenue. The timing is really bad for choosing to raise funds at this time, so everyone is really unwilling to do this.
According to a more conservative approach, we must not only acquire the controlling stake in Tomtom, but also ensure the safety of the company's cash flow. It is best to ensure that the acquisition funds are all guaranteed through financing, that is, SAL needs to raise more than US$500 million. According to the current valuation of about US$10 billion, SAL must give up at least about 5% of the new shares.
You should know that after a year, the $500 million is likely to become $1.5 billion. After acquiring Tomtom, can the company add a billion in new revenue in a year?
Now that the financing is raised, the risk of this fund has been passed on, but the share income has also disappeared.
Paying such a heavy equity cost really hurts Cai Siqiang, Dong Feng, Zhao Jianwu and others. After all, everyone can see that the revenue of SAL is increasing day by day, and the price of the shares they hold in their hands is also rising with the increase in income. Who would be willing to spit out the fat meat in their mouths?
However, if there is no financing, no one can think of any other channels that can not only complete the acquisition, but also effectively reduce the company's operating risks.
So, what is facing everyone is a difficult problem.
Financing? Not raising funds? It is really a difficult issue now.
Everyone was silent for a moment. Of course, it was not that everyone forgot about Duke, the major shareholder, but that no agreement was reached on a small scale. Just put this issue in front of Duke and let Duke make an idea. That would be really boring. It seems that the management team led by Cai Siqiang is not responsible.
After all, Duke is basically completely ignored by SAL, and Duke has never opposed any decision of Cai Siqiang.
"Or the less we will acquire a big guy like Tomtom?" Dong Feng was shaken and carefully put forward his new suggestions.
"But in this way, our navigation instrument business will start relatively low, and we still have to fight bloody battles with many domestic counterfeit factories. After all, we are a new brand. Even if we have the standard equipment qualification of FAW, we can take advantage of some domestic advantages, but the competitive environment is too fierce and it is difficult to open the gap at once. If we continue like this, the prospects of our product will be average." Zhao Jianwu sighed.
This is still the domestic market, and it has some confidence in competition with its technological advantages, but in the international market, well, in three to five years, everyone should not think too much about it. This thing is not as good as a software product, and can quickly cross national boundaries. It is not like the brain wave helmet product developed by Duke, which is basically a unique and irreplaceable monopoly product.
Personnel, brand, after-sales service, sales channels, which sal company has the conditions? Without Tomtom, sal can't accumulate these things in a short time, let alone enter the list of high-end market accessories suppliers such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz.
Or some people say how to find a small international company to acquire it? They also have sales channels in the international market, but the person who raises this question asks, if you really have the ability to enter the top market, will this company still be a small company?
Acquisition of tomtom is equivalent to leapfrog and extraordinary development, while acquiring a domestic enterprise is relatively stable development.
The question is that if you have the opportunity to run fast by taking a high-speed train, who would still be willing to ride a two-wheeled bicycle and move forward slowly?
"I think it's better to make a plan with tomtom as the goal. I'll see if I can think of a way to get a good price." Cai Siqiang thought about it for a long time, but still made up his mind. If you want to win this tomtom, the price problem of venture capital investment should be solved, at least you have to try it first. You can't just give up so easily.
After all, if you can raise funds to solve the acquisition funding problem, it is equivalent to getting a high-quality complete navigation device production service chain. The high-end navigation device market has tens of millions of units per year. The annual sales volume of cars of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi alone is as high as about 4 million units. If you can win in this market, the profits will be very generous.
Chapter completed!