Chapter 676 Confidence is more important than gold!(1/2)
And when 9:15 comes, the two cities enter the call auction.
It can be seen that the main line core stocks of the two cities, various industry sector indexes, concept sector indexes, etc., all opened higher with the assistance of pre-market sentiment and the aggressive rush for funds by long funds. Among them, market investors paid higher attention, and the popularity and
Mainline core stocks and concept leading stocks that are highly discussed are showing a trend of opening significantly higher.
Especially after yesterday's market dragon and tiger ranking data were released, it ranked among the top ten stocks in the two cities in terms of attention and discussion.
Stocks such as 'Western Securities, Flush, Huake Shuguang, Hengsheng Electronics, Jinzheng Shares, LeTV, Oriental Fortune...' have opened higher with gains of more than 3%. Among them, 'Huake Shuguang' continues to maintain
Wuliang Straight Board's daily limit trend, Western Securities, and Flush initially opened higher, all at an increase of more than 5%.
"It's high again!"
At 9:16, in the main fund trading room of Zexi Investment Company in Shanghai, Zhou Kan, who was observing the changes in the market prices of the two cities, sighed with emotion: "It is really a complete short squeeze trend. The investment sentiment of the entire market shows
, are all ridiculously strong, and the active attack intensity of various funds is also ridiculously strong.
Looking at the current market situation, compared with half a year ago, or even compared with the first half of the year, it is completely different.
But if we talk about how much the market fundamentals and macroeconomic fundamentals have changed in the past six months, or more than half a year, I think... there has not been much change in essence.
However, the market trend has formed two extremes in just over half a year.
More than half a year ago.
No one could have imagined that market turnover would reach 600 billion in the last two months of the year, right? No one expected that the financing balance would surge towards the trillion mark.
Seeing the current market performance, and recalling the first half of the year, various major financial institutions all said that the failure of the market to rise was due to funding problems, saying that under the 'money shortage crisis', the market could not have a bull market. As a result,
...Now it’s really a slap in the face!
Facts have proved that the market is not short of money at all.
As long as the market has a sustained money-making effect, the investment risk preference of the investor group will increase.
Then, even if the overall capital situation on and off the market is tight, there will still be countless capital flows into the stock market in various forms and through various channels."
Xu Xiang, who was sitting next to Zhou Kan, squinted his eyes and looked at the changes in the initial collective bidding trends of the two cities. He responded with a smile: "Whether it is the domestic financial market or the foreign financial market, facts have proven that expectations and confidence are both.
It is something more important than gold.
In fact, before the central bank took any substantive monetary policy measures.
That is, before there is any substantial large-scale release of liquidity to the market, interest rate cuts, RRR cuts, or large-scale public operations.
Compared with half a year ago, or even more than half a year ago, the financial situation of the market has not changed substantially.
However, why has the overall market transaction volume soared several times in just half a year? Why was the overall market transaction volume at the beginning of the year generally only about 50 billion to 80 billion, but now it has stabilized at around 500 billion or 600 billion? So much
Where do the incremental funding groups come from? Why are they so aggressive in rushing to enter the market?
The fundamental reason is that the market's investment confidence and investment expectations play a role.
This is an investment era where expectations and confidence are more important than underlying fundamental performance!
As long as there are expectations and confidence, then the market's continued money-making effect will continue to expand step by step, and the bull market will naturally emerge.
In fact, whether it is the broader market or the overall performance of the entire market.
Or we should follow this logic in our investment ideas and trading operations.
In the market, there are many stocks that do not seem to have very good fundamentals, but the main funds are quite aggressive in raising funds. This is because they are supported by future expectations and confidence.
Just like securities, Internet finance are currently the two most popular main sectors with the most crazy capital accumulation.
Why many popular stocks have doubled their share prices while their performance remains unchanged is also driven by strong expectations for the future."
"Indeed!" Zhou Kan deeply agreed with what Xu Xiang said, nodded, and responded with a smile, "The stock price always reacts before the fundamentals, such as securities and Internet finance, two major continuous forces.
I'm thinking about the empty sector...if the central bank starts to officially cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios in the future, and all the good things that everyone expected will start to come true, the stock prices of these core stocks will most likely slow down, right?"
Xu Xiang said: "This is for sure. The logic of the rise and fall of stock prices is not the realization of expectations, but the strength or weakness of the expected difference. The good things that can be expected, even if the good things are realized, are within expectations and will not increase."
The difference in original expectations of large stocks will naturally not have much stimulating effect on the stock price. This is also the fundamental logical reason for the so-called "all the good is gone, but it is bad".
The main line of "big finance" is the expected point of the first wave of gains.
There is a high probability that the central bank's monetary policy will actually turn around, that is, when the news of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts that everyone expected will officially take effect.
But..."
Xu Xiang paused and then said: "As long as the market's 'bull market' pattern continues, and the market's turnover in the two markets continues to rise, even if the central bank's monetary policy turns to a positive effect, 'big finance' will lose
The momentum of the aggressive short-squeezing trend and the fall into correction should not be deep.
Just like the current two core main lines of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’.
Although its internal chip structure has been temporarily dispersed, and with the implementation of many good news, many major financial groups have cashed in the good news and taken profits. However, as the bull market pattern continues, market liquidity is becoming more and more abundant.
Under the circumstances, and the forward investment logic of these two core main lines, and the forward expectations are still strong, once it is adjusted downward, the funds received will still be very strong."
"The boss is saying that the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' will most likely not fall under this market trend?" Zhou Kan probably understood the meaning of Xu Xiang's words, "The boss is
Do you think the two core lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' will have a big market in the future?"
Xu Xiang thought for a while and responded: "It's not clear yet whether the two core lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' can continue to get out of the third wave of main market prices. What I can see is... these two
It should be difficult for the big core main lines to continue to fall. After all, with such strong market active funds, especially the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', the valuations of many stocks are actually substantial.
When the water level is not high and the gap in future expectations is still not small, it is obvious that... some active capital groups overflowing from the main line of 'big finance' are fully able to take on this market.
besides……
The two major macroeconomic structural strategic policies of "Maritime Silk Road in the New Era" and "Reform and Reorganization of Central and State-owned Enterprises" are the real top-level design policies.
Such a top-level design policy will surely be followed by countless supporting favorable policies.
In other words, in the main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', there will definitely be no shortage of positive news in the follow-up, and the expected gap in these fields is entirely possible to expand further.
What's more, increasing defense spending and reforming military industrial enterprises are basically clear lines.
There is a high probability that it will not change in a few years or ten years.
With such a long-term expectation, it is naturally impossible for the main line market to only move in such a wave, or to end completely in just a few months.
There are also policy orientations in the direction of "big infrastructure" and changes in the real estate market.
Its performance-promoting effect on related industry chain companies is inherently lagging behind.
Like real estate companies, generally after the property market is booming, it will be transmitted to the company's profit statement in the second or even third year.
This also means that the continuity of the market cannot be just two or three months, or even a quarter.
The bull market pattern continues.
The two core main lines of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’ will definitely have the opportunity to be intensively speculated by main funds in the future, and there is a high probability that a larger main line market will be born.
Of course, currently, the adjustment pattern of these two core main lines is not over yet.
Many major capital groups gathered in these two core main areas are still flowing out, stimulated by the continuous short squeeze trend of the "big finance" main line, and continue to converge to the "big finance" main line area.
Specifically, these two main lines will be revealed again in the future.
We will know after a period of time when the main line of 'big financial' expectations is fully reflected, the market divergence increases again, and the siphoning effect on the active capital flow of the entire market is reduced."
"What about the line of 'technological growth'?" Zhou Kan asked, "I think comparing the two core lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', the line of 'technological growth' logically has a bigger gap in expectations.
, are the expectations for the future stronger? Moreover, the 'Technology Growth' line has been adjusted for a long time. Regardless of the strong rebound in June, the starting point for the adjustment of the 'Technology Growth' line should be at the end of last year.
when.
In fact, last year, the ChiNext Index was able to get out of the index doubling market and have what everyone calls a "little bull market" trend. It was entirely driven by the main line of "technological growth".
And after almost a year of adjustment.
The high valuations left behind by last year's speculation have basically returned to a reasonable range, as many core stocks have continued to grow at a high rate this year.
The current market has entered a bull market.
According to the confidence and expectations of investors in a bull market, the valuations of these high-growth stocks should be overvalued.
Therefore, I think there are opportunities in the main line of ‘technological growth’.
The market outlook should not be worse than the main lines of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’ mentioned by the boss just now.”
Xu Xiang smiled and said: "It's not bad, but the capital carrying capacity of the 'technological growth' line is still very limited. If the bull market wants to reach a high level, it must be led by the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'finance'.
Otherwise, it will be impossible to truly stimulate market investor sentiment and confidence.
This shows that last year, the GEM index went out of the index doubling market, and the entire "technological growth" main line surged on a large scale.
However, it failed to drive up the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and failed to drive up the core mainline stocks of the market. As a result, the prices of the two cities quickly rebounded in the first quarter of this year, and the Shanghai Stock Index almost hit a new low. You will know that it is a comprehensive bull market.
It still needs to be driven by the core and main line.”
"That's true!" Zhou Kan thought for a while and finally nodded.
As the two discussed the market and analyzed the development of the market outlook.
At this time, when the two of them returned their eyes to the trading boards of the two markets.
The time has come to around 9:22. I saw that after the initial collective bidding in the two cities, after a large number of orders were withdrawn on a large scale from 9:19 to 9:20, the pattern showed is worse than that at 9:15.
Not only did the pattern not fall back significantly, it actually got stronger.
To be continued...