In 1910, the fifth year of Huaxing.

In February, the northwest wind passes through the streets, and the bare branches of the French sycamore trees sway slightly, making low whimpers. The pedestrians all looked solemn and walked in a hurry.

The prosperity of the first half of 1909 seems to be still vivid in my mind, but in the second half of the year, there have been ominous signs. After 1910, the situation not only did not improve, but it became even worse...

Housewives were busy with housework, and the announcer's bitter voice came from the radio: "...As of the closing of noon, the Beijing Comprehensive Index fell by 2.6 points, a drop of 1.4%...Dr. Liu, what do you think of the recent stock market?"

"...I am personally cautiously optimistic about the current market. The current adverse factors mainly come from the periphery. The current problems are concentrated in the bankruptcy of the United States and the trust crisis caused by the bankruptcy of railway companies... At present, it seems that the UK has given a relatively sufficient reaction. After all, they have too much funds deposited in the US finance and railways. In fact, the economic problems themselves are not that serious. The demand for economic development in various countries is still real. The biggest problem is in the financial system... I think our financial system is generally healthy. After all, domestic banks have issued statements that there is no speculation on these high-yield bonds, trust companies and small banks in the United States..."

In recent years, many newly established private banks have lined up in front of the gates of new private banks, and everyone is anxiously looking at the business window in front. If the police department or even the military police were not dispatched to maintain order in an emergency, violent conflicts might even occur.

In the hall of the Senate of Beijing, members of various parties quarreled and accused the government of unfavorable governance. Some members of the parliament were preparing to propose proposals to impeach the government for being very happy in the preparations for the Olympic Games of the previous year and borrowed too much. This led to a heavy burden on the government. Now that European and American tourists have dropped sharply, the country's economy has cooled down, and the operation of many venues has begun to become a burden...

The stock exchange located in Xincheng District and its surrounding neighborhoods called "financial districts", the pedestrians' faces say everything. The situation of everyone's joy and confidence in the past was gone. Some of the newly fired financial employees were drunk in the tavern next to them, and were surrounded by wine bottles.

In the exchange, the bidders were as agile and efficient as ever, but the scene was no longer as lively as ever, nor the shouts of "Starting, rising, rising" as the crowds said. The red vests made buying and selling gestures while cursing in a low voice.

In the newly built Haotian Buddhism, the helpless church members listened to the bishop's sermons and recited the scriptures devoutly, as if this would allow them to stay away from the troubles and sorrows of the world.

In the factory, workers who were uneasy due to rumors of production cuts and even layoffs were worried while working. The leaders of the trade union have been convened by the Socialist Party for emergency consultations. I wonder if there will be any unified action!

The same situation happened in Shanghai, Wuhan, Dalian, Shenyang, Guangzhou, and Tianjin... The originally thriving hot scene suddenly cooled down after just a few months.

This economic cold wave that has blown from Europe and the United States has finally slowed down the pace of progress for many years of rapid growth and is pushing the "Five-Year Development Outline" to the highest level of the East.

Entrepreneurs who have long been accustomed to stride forward and expanding rapidly are satisfied with the increasing improvement of their lives. The emerging middle-class people who have just begun to try to buy houses with loans have moved into public rental housing, obtained basic guarantees, and their wages have gradually increased. The workers at the bottom who are planning to save more money to buy furniture are completely unprepared for such sudden changes.

Have you to... endure it again? Although the last crisis was not as serious as this time, it was finally alleviated in preparation for war and finally solved the problem with war.

What about this time?

Another speculative bubble that began to shatter in 1907 was postponed to early 1909 due to China's economic rise and post-war reconstruction.

In another time and space, the direct reason for the bursting of this speculative bubble was that the stock market speculation wave was destroyed under the pressure of high credit costs, and the core driving force was that the speculative bubbles between the United States and Germany triggered a large number of British and French capitals, and the production capacity of the two countries expanded sharply, driving global raw materials soared and inflation was high, thus raising credit costs and eventually bursting the bubble.

In this time and space, due to the sharp imbalance in the Far East after the Asian War, China and Germany moved towards cooperation, French capital turned largely to Russia for reconstruction, while British capital flowed to China in large quantities before the war, as well as the expansion of China's industrial power and resource output, and even a series of Chinese capital in the European and American markets absorbed a large amount of funds, which cooled the speculation wave in the United States in disguise. A series of complex factors delayed the bursting of the speculative bubble for more than a year before it detonated.

However, the belated bubble bursting has even more lethality.

In just half a year, more than 500 credit institutions in the United States went bankrupt, with US$856 million in deposits gone away, and most banks stopped paying cash. More than 60 railway companies went bankrupt, with their issued stocks and bonds of up to US$1.765 billion, and the railway was 38,500 kilometers long. There were 41,500 industrial and commercial enterprises registered to go bankrupt, with a total debt of US$1.58 billion. In the United States, the decline in production caused by this crisis was more serious than ever. Based on monthly figures, steel production fell by nearly 69%, pig iron 53%, locomotives 82%, truck carriages 84%, new railways were built 63%, new construction contracts decreased by 47%, 70% of steel trust enterprises were suspended, and the unemployment rate increased sharply from 3% to 9.6%.

Britain, which is closely linked to the US economy, is the first to be hit, with the crisis depth second only to the United States. In the first half of 1909, ferrous metal consumption decreased by 37%, pig iron production decreased by 24%, steel production decreased by 35%, newly built ship tonnage decreased by 62%, and cotton consumption decreased by 24%.

Relatively speaking, Germany suffered a relatively shallow injury, but the consumption of ferrous metals also fell by more than 28%, steel output fell by 19.1%, and the tonnage of completed commercial ships suddenly decreased by one third. The construction industry suffered the worst losses, with business volume shrinking by 49%. Correspondingly, the output of building materials such as cement fell by more than half. The loss of light industry is not small. The export of cotton yarn and cotton cloth decreased by 24%, and the price of cotton cloth fell by 23%. However, due to the high monopoly of German industry, taking the steel industry as an example, the price of product has increased significantly. With the help of extensive economic cooperation with China, the German economy is striving to climb out of the quagmire.

France suffered a little less severely. With the help of French capital's advantage in Russia, Russia's huge demand for post-war reconstruction maintained the French industrial products market. French industrial production did not show a significant decline, but some light industry exports were also hit.

China in the East, an Eastern economy, which is increasingly closely linked to the world economy and is increasingly becoming one of the important leading forces of the world economy, has inevitably suffered a heavy blow from the crisis.

From June 1909 to December 1909, in just half a year, China's exports fell by more than 40%. The Chinese stock market, which is in a hot momentum, also experienced an avalanche decline due to the selling of European and American funds. Various funds fled together. Many banks tightened their money and began to run money among the public.

The Baath Party was once again pushed to the forefront.

In the 1908 parliamentary re-election, the Baak Party finally saved its shaky political status with the help of the emperor's support in the 1907 Gansu Party's party struggles and a series of subsequent rescue measures. The Baak Party finally saved its shaky political status. With the rapid development of the country's economy and the successful holding of the 1908 Olympic Games, the Baak Party gradually regained the originally somewhat backward polls.

According to a sample survey conducted by the four major survey companies in the Empire, more than 70% of the voters interviewed generally believe that "the life is getting better and better. The Baaking Party has been working for so long, so it is better not to take risks." "I think this government is good." Between stable development and potential turmoil, most voters still chose the former.

Even the trade union organization, which was originally regarded as the foundation of the social party, finally chose to support the Baaking Party. The reason is not complicated, and whether it is the trade union leader or ordinary members, the roots are still realistic. The Baaking Party has a deep foundation for many years in power. Although His Majesty said that the party struggle is not a life-and-death battle, I have never seen a party who says it is easy to hand over power. Once the wrong side is right, it is not a joke to go to the stage to wear it for itself in the future. Seeing that the emperor still showed his support for the Baaking Party, and the days in recent years have been really comfortable, and there is really no motivation to take risks.

In this re-election, the Baath Party won 30 seats in the Senate, the Socialist Party won 12 seats, and the Liberal Party and the Civic Party also improved, winning a total of five seats, five seats in the Constitutional Party, four seats in the United Party, and four seats in the Peasant Party. The Yanhuang Party, who was hit in a row, returned empty-handed. Among the 200 seats in the House of Representatives, the Baath Party won 94 seats, while the Socialist Party won 36 seats, the Liberal Party and Civic Party twelve seats, the Constitutional Party and the United Party only won 26 seats in the Constitutional Party, the Yanhuang Party won 6 seats, the Peasant Party 15 seats, and the ** candidates were 11 seats.

However, what made the Baath Party troubled the fact that shortly after the election, the Chinese Peasant Party announced its support for the Socialist Party’s rural policies and announced comprehensive cooperation with the Socialist Party to form a "fair alliance", which shocked the socialist Party.

Many members of the Buxing Party had already changed their schools in the original parliament. After the election, the Buxing Party's advantages were further compressed.

Seeing that the Socialist Party has become the main opposition party, the Baaking Party, which is accustomed to "representing all the people", decided to form a joint cabinet in accordance with the practices of the Zheng Ying era to bridge the party struggles.

An unprecedented debate broke out within the Socialist Party regarding the joint formation of the Baxing Party. The radical Central Executive Committee, headed by Hu Hanmin, who announced his separation from the Chinese Democratic Party six years ago, strongly opposed joining the Baxing Party's cabinet, believing that "what China needs most at present is the opposition party rather than the vassal of the ruling party." Zhou Minggen, secretary-general and acting chairman, and most Central Executive Committee members believed that "joining the cabinet is more conducive to practicing our propositions", and "the gap between the Baxing Party's labor policies and our requirements at this stage is not very big." Because of the successful promotion of the propaganda work, the centrists such as Wang Minghan and others worked hard to reconcile. In the end, Hu Hanmin and others were persuaded. The Central Executive Committee voted to join the joint cabinet, but proposed more cabinet seats.

After some bargaining, the Baxing Party had to make concessions. In addition to Minister of Labor and Capital Zhou Minggen, Minister of Agriculture Li Qingwen took the initiative to resign and was hired as president of China Agricultural University, giving the position of minister to Lin Zihang, an expert on peasant issues of the Democratic Party of China.

Lin Zihang himself belongs to the moderate Chinese Democratic Party, and his argument is actually similar to the peasant policies proposed by the Baath Party. He is only more inclined to invest in rural water conservancy and transportation facilities, as well as credit preferential treatment.

Surprisingly, Xiao Jian, one of the executive members of the Socialist Party, officially took over the police department, a former Imperial Guard Major General Xiao Jian officially took over the police department. However, if you think about this person, he was originally an imperial guard and was a confidant promoted by Zheng Ying, everyone basically understood the meaning of it.

In addition, according to the annual government preparation approved by Congress, the cabinet will form the Ministry of Agriculture’s Water Conservancy Bureau, which was originally affiliated with the Ministry of Agriculture, to coordinate the national water conservancy construction. Zhao Tiequn, the Central Executive Committee of the Socialist Party, served as Minister of Water Resources, and promoted a group of water conservancy experts. He began to plan a larger-scale national water conservancy construction.

After some changes, the Baath Party finally brought the Socialist Party, the most dangerous competitor that the Baath Party split into the United Cabinet, which formally maintained the overall appearance of "unity across the country" and was preparing to take advantage of the east wind after the Olympics. Unexpectedly, he was hit by a blow.

The global economic crisis that has not yet arrived has come.

This crisis, which has been delayed and suppressed for a long time, swept across the entire European and American economies with a storm.

At the beginning, China, which was used to rapid economic growth and had experience in the last crisis, did not take it seriously. China's construction is in full swing. Export orders were scheduled to be in the next year, and everywhere was thriving. On the contrary, many companies were ready to seize the bankruptcy wave in Europe and the United States, and then add a batch of machines at a low price, just like the last time.

But in August, the European and American crisis did not ease, but instead evolved from the bursting of the speculative bubble to the crisis of the real economy. It was first reflected in China's foreign exports. European and American channel dealers significantly cut orders, even giving up deposits or even paying compensation, canceling subsequent orders. Although China relied on some retail networks directly controlled by Europe and the United States, as well as cooperative institutions such as Marshall Department Store in the United States, and the economic depression was inevitably reflected in the prices of raw materials. The export volume of raw materials such as India, Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa has plummeted, and has also begun to reduce imports of Chinese goods.

After a series of actions of "national industrial brand improvement", cultural infiltration and peaceful diplomacy, the national image was gradually reversed, and the achievements of China's industry were fully demonstrated with the help of the East Asia Industrial Expo, and Chinese goods quickly opened a gap in Europe and the United States. Based on this, the Chinese industry has placed high expectations for exports and has also carried out large-scale expansion of production, established distribution channels and even terminal networks in Europe and the United States, and found agent partners...

This motorcycle that had just begun to gallop suddenly encountered a cliff-like fall.

The cabinet dominated by the Baath Party faced the crisis and quickly discussed countermeasures.

The central bank governor and member of the Baxing Party, Ma Xinyu, advocated further easing credit, lowering interest rates, and lowering the reserve requirement ratio. At the same time, the state injected capital into state-owned banks with fiscal funds to transfusion blood to the economy.

On the Socialist Party, Zhou Minggen first raised questions, believing that the original credit had been relatively loose, and further relaxation of credit was tantamount to thinking that it would create inflation, and whether this kind of relaxation could offset the demand gap caused by the decline in exports could not be determined.

Minister of Finance and Cadre of the Baath Party, Li Dengyun, supported Ma Xinyu's view, believing that the current situation is somewhat similar to that in 1900, and the response can also be learned from the countermeasures of that time. Credit easing is one aspect, and it can also urgently increase government fiscal expenditures, including expanding welfare security expenditures, increasing infrastructure construction investment, and relaxing the quota restrictions on local debts in some cities, etc.

Minister of Transport Zhan Tianyou naturally agreed with this: his railway and highway construction plan and bridge construction had originally lasting five, ten or even fifteen years, and many projects were launched in advance.

In the face of this situation, Tang Shaoyi himself actually prefers to follow the previous handling. But he also has to consider the opinions of the Socialist Party: on the one hand, the Socialist Party’s seat in the parliament and its influence in various trade union organizations; on the other hand, he is also very clear: once inflation soars, the people’s livelihood that has just improved may deteriorate and society may be unstable.

This is undoubtedly very unfavorable for countries that have just taken off.

After arguing, you can only compromise:

First of all, it is emergency relief. The state finance urgently injects capital into state-controlled listed companies, and these listed companies announced that they would increase their holdings to stabilize the confidence of the securities market. The central bank stopped raising interest rates and tightened credit, and at the same time repurchased bonds from banks through open market operations to release currency.

Then announce the investment plan for the next year in advance and introduce some investment projects in advance to stabilize the market's confidence in future economic growth;

Then the country's plan to purchase grain and oil reserves was announced to stabilize agricultural product prices and farmers' expectations.

Although projects that use extrabudgetary funds still require Congress approval, the announcement of these plans has had some impact on the market and barely stabilized the verge of collapse.

However, as the crisis in Europe and the United States deepens, more and more unfavorable news is reported, and the country's investment is exhausted, and the situation has not been fundamentally reversed.

By December, the first large-scale credit contraction in recent years finally occurred in China. A large number of companies that expanded too quickly in the past two years and had excessive debt leverage encountered unprecedented difficulties: the source of loans in the next year was cut off, and the company's orders were unable to borrow new ones to repay old ones, and there were problems with the company's orders.

The wave of layoffs has gradually become a common phenomenon in some places, especially coastal areas where exports account for a high proportion. In many places, registered unemployed workers lined up in queues, and some families even moved out of public rental housing and moved into free basements provided by the church.

An unprecedented economic cold wave has made the country that has been smooth sailing for many years feel unprecedented pressure.

At this time, everyone from the cabinet to the parliament, from the chaebols, and even the people, was looking forward to a certain voice.
Chapter completed!