Warner Bros. has never been worried about the heat of the discussion on "Interstellar" as it has been updated for half a year and even if it is time to hurry, relying on the strong appeal of the cast lineup, these are not problems.

Sure enough, after the movie premiere, from the media to the audience, from traditional newspapers and magazines to emerging social networks, "Interstellar Crossing" began to flood the screen with great popularity, and the discussions soared to the sky. Although it is not comparable to the preparation that "Captain America 2" has been brewing for more than 18 months, it still gained a foothold in the summer season.

Now let’s look at the conversion rate between the heat of discussion and box office data. Judging from the market appeal of Renli and Nolan, the final total box office figure is worth looking forward to.

However, it has been mentioned before that due to the feedback of internal preview information and the decision to temporarily upgrade, including Warner Bros. and industry insiders, the estimates of the premiere box office are relatively conservative. Referring to the box office curve of "Inception", "Interstellar" should also rely more on the continuous long-term box office, rather than the explosion on the premiere weekend.

Warner Brothers' caution can be seen from the number of screening theaters.

"Godzilla", the number of theaters released by 3,952.

"Interstellar Crossing" has released 3,592 theater chains.

The number of theaters in the two works is 360 different. The number of venues in "Interstellar" is even smaller than the "Lego Movie" and "300 Warriors" released earlier this year. Among Warner Bros.'s annual theater works in 2014, the release scale of "Interstellar" can only rank eighth, which is basically the same as the comedy movie "Tan Mi".

The number of theaters released is undoubtedly distinctive: the family-friendly animated movies often exceed 4,000; the summer heavyweight popcorn movies are about 3,800; the horror movies are below 3,000, and it is also common to have a horror movie magnitude below 3,000, which is lower than 2,000.

Now, there are only 3,592 "Interstellar Travel", which is only less than 100 more than "Tan Mi". This is also one of the important reasons why major news media generally suspect that this work may become an abandoned child after the movie was confirmed to be released. Even if it is not an abandoned child, it also shows that Warner Brothers lacks confidence.

Looking at the horizontal comparison, this is the case with the "Edge of Tomorrow" two years ago, with about 3,500 screening venues; for reference, there are 3,792 theaters in "Inception".

It can be seen that the number of venues in the above three works is lower than the average level of commercial works in the summer. From the data level alone, there are only two hundred and three hundred. The possible difference is some small towns in the central region, which has a slim impact on the box office - but who can know? Who can be 100% sure?

The only thing that can be explained is that Warner Bros.'s market estimates for science fiction movies are still a bit conservative. Even after "Edge of Tomorrow" and "Inception" have successively achieved outstanding results, the publicity and distribution department's box office data estimates for "Interstellar" are still a bit conservative. This mentality is also concentrated on Warner Bros.'s official box office forecast numbers.

Sixty-five million dollars!

It's not 100 million US dollars, nor 80 million US dollars, but only 65 million US dollars. Such a super low number also made all netizens and viewers fall below their glasses.

But in fact, industry insiders believe that this is a very appropriate number.

Although "Edge of Tomorrow" once created a box office miracle of 138 million in the same period two years ago, and emerged as a work with a box office of over 100 million in the 22nd film history, the 22nd film history work was released; however, don't forget "Inception".

Nolan convened actors such as Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon Levitt, Allen Page, Marion Cotillard and other actors, and formed a Starlight Casino that is comparable to the "Avengers" to produce this work. Under the cover of 74 points of media comprehensive reviews, everyone believed that this movie had all the elements that ignited the market, which was the focus of attention.

The final premiere of "Inception" was 62 million.

Of course, "Inception" still swept the box office data of 290 million US dollars in North America with its super reputation, and the performance of the overseas market is even more impressive; but the objective fact is that such brain-burning science fiction movies do lack explosive power on the premiere weekend, and they still need to use the momentum after word-of-mouth spread to complete the box office breakthrough.

"Interstellar" can be compared with "Inception" in all aspects. Then Warner Bros. gave a 65 million premiere box office forecast, which is slightly conservative but has no merits and no mistakes.

The box office forecast numbers of relevant professional media also expressed support for Warner Bros.

The Chicago Sun's box office forecast was the highest bidder in the first round estimate: $80 million.

"Nolan is not Nolan in 2010, and Hall is not Hall in 2012. These two top filmmakers of the Hollywood pyramid have proved themselves through one work after another. When Nolan and Hall partnered in 2014, the sparks they collided with were undoubtedly explosive in the market."

They mentioned a very important thing: when "Edge of Tomorrow" was released, although works such as "Love Crazy" and "Fast and Furious 5" had achieved good box office, Lan Li was a "summer novice" who had never taken the lead. From art movies to commercial movies, no one could determine whether the audience would enter the cinema for the name "Lianli Hall"; but the situation has changed greatly now, and the outstanding box office of the two works "Gravity" and "Drunk Village Folk" is the best proof.

Then, there is no reason for "Interstellar" to be an exception.

The box office forecast of "Rolling Stone" set the lowest in the first round forecast: $25 million.

There was no error in printing, and there was no error in magazine predictions, and that was the correct number, and obviously they did not miss a zero.

"Everyone has overlooked the fact that when the '2001 Space Odyssey' and 'Blade Runner' premiered that year, they did not get the treatment they deserved - 'Blade Runner' was even scolded for being a super bad movie, and both of them performed very badly at the box office. This also proves that classic science fiction movies that exist beyond the times often cannot adapt to contemporary aesthetic needs.

The success of 'Inception' comes from the fantasy construction based on human real life. In the environment where 'Interstellar crossing' leaves the earth and enters space, can the 'brain-burning plot' presented by Nolan be accepted by the audience? And when 'Georgeous' has just contributed the best space scene in the history of film, it is even more difficult for this work to make a breakthrough in the summer season."

From the vague feedback from the internal trial, to the temporary upgrade of the period of six months, to the absence of Lan Li during the publicity stage... "Rolling Stone" believes that all aspects reveal a sense of uneasiness - perhaps "Interstellar Crossing" can still turn around with reputation, but it is difficult to break the shackles of the entire era on the premiere weekend: this is an era when wine is fragrant and afraid of deep alleys. Even Marvel movies cannot guarantee that the box office of each work will be successful. So why do Nolan and Lan Li's signatures say that they can "find the finale"?

The views of "Chicago Sun" and "Rolling Stone" make sense, and other media's prediction data can also be referenced:

"New York Times", 55 million.

"Los Angeles Times", 40 million.

"Hollywood Reporter", 60 million.

"Variety Show" is 60 million.

"Empire", 50 million.

The prediction data of mainstream authoritative media are all concentrated between 40 million and 60 million. Overall, it is still relatively average, and it has not risen too much or downward pressure. It is basically consistent with the official prediction of Warner Bros.; such feedback is somewhat similar to the curve pattern of the media comprehensive review - the main opinions are all concentrated in the middle area, neither up nor down, ambiguous, and lacks a fierce confrontation with clear distinction between likes and dislikes. It seems that everyone is trying to find a more suitable and more accurate way to comment on this work, but it cannot be determined in a short period of time.

Then, that's it.

In fact, industry insiders are more looking forward to the emergence of a popular work than anyone else. Since the opening of the summer season in 2014, no work has yet to break the box office of the weekend of the premiere of any work, which is really disappointing. All highly anticipated works regretfully lack explosive power, which also makes the summer season a little dull.

So far, the best box office work performed on the summer premiere weekend is still "Captain America 2", which is 95 million, which is so close but so far from the threshold of 100 million.

In addition, three works had a box office of more than 90 million, following closely behind "Captain America 2" - "Godzilla", "Amazing Spider-Man 2", and "X-Men: Reversing the Future", but the premiere data of the three works were all between 90 million and 93 million, and there was no breakthrough.

Now everyone is discussing: Can the box office of the premiere of the work this year exceed 100 million yuan on the weekend? If Interstellar fails hope, Guardians of the Galaxy and Transformers 4 seem to lack a little championship appearance. Should they expect the "Teenagement of the Ninja Turtles"?

After the official debut of "Interstellar", the reputation feedback from all aspects was eye-catching, which also made major news media slightly raise their expectations - maybe, they underestimated this work; maybe, the chemical reaction between Nolan and Renly could trigger a market boom after all; maybe, they could look forward to unexpected surprises?

Like Warner Bros., industry insiders are also waiting for the emergence of a dark horse, otherwise such a lifeless summer season would be really fun.

Can this be considered... looking forward to being slapped in the face?

However, judging from the popcorn index, theater scores and other data, "Interstellar" is more likely to be like the second "Inception" rather than the second "Edge of Tomorrow".

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