Chapter 1083 Guessing the Number Showdown (Second 2)
"Mr. Jing?" Feng Bujue immediately understood the meaning of this title, "Oh... it is Huaying (in Peking Opera, "jing" is usually called Huaying, Zhengjing, Deputy Jing, Wujing corresponds to big Huaying, Erhua, Wuhua/Wu Erhua)?"
"Should be poor with me.∷," Mr. Jing was still a little surprised that Brother Jue got his name, but he did not intend to continue to tear him down with the other party about this issue. "What do you call him? Crow's mouth?"
"Yes." Feng Bujue smiled openly, "Just call me 'crow'."
"Hmph..." Mr. Jing snorted coldly, "Then, I'm starting to make questions now, crow's mouth."
He said, while picking up the paper and pen in front of him.
"Please." Feng Bujue held a glass of drink and supported the table with one elbow (adults with a cart height of about 1.25 meters and height within the average range can use their elbows to rest on the table as long as they lean forward). He responded very easily.
…………
According to the rules, the match between the guessing game is divided into two games. The first game is where the party who raises the challenge is called bets and guesses, while the party who accepts the challenge is responsible for setting the questions.
In each game, there are a total of "two parts" that need to be called:
The first part is "declared" by the guessing party, guessing the correct answer within "several rounds", and then the questioner calls the bet according to the number of rounds given by the other party, and the minimum bet must not be less than 1% of the total amount of gold held at the beginning of the showdown; the bet after this bet is fixed, the guessing party cannot raise further bets and must follow up.
For example... For example, the guessing party declares that he can guess the answer within "five rounds". Obviously, the probability of such a thing is almost zero; at this time, the questioner will definitely directly call the maximum bet he can call, and the challenger must follow up (if the money is not as much as the other party, refer to the Regulations 2 mentioned by the organizer, and continue the showdown).
Then, when the showdown is "completely over", the two sides settle the fee based on the final number of rounds.
Of course, the above situation is unlikely to happen...
Because the betting of "this part", that is, the "betting round", is generally given money to the guessing party.
As long as the guessing party says an exaggerated number of "one hundred rounds" or even "one thousand rounds" in the declaration, it will basically be a sure win. Therefore, the bet in this part will be called by the questioner... When facing that kind of number, the questioner will definitely only call the lowest bet he can call.
In other words, after the outcome of this game, as long as the guessing party fails to lose all the money during the showdown, you can basically get back a small amount of money from the questioner when settlement is settled.
This setting is mainly set up in consideration of the obvious disadvantage of the guessing party in the duel.
Next, look at the "second part" called note:
This part is repeated during the showdown...that is, in each round, the guessing party must make a bet. Similarly... the amount of each bet cannot be less than 1% of the upper limit of the holding; and the questioning party has two options: first, call; second, surrender.
Calling is naturally to let the game continue; and "surrender" means that the questioner admits defeat, and after he pays the corresponding fine, the game will be declared over.
If the rule of "betting round" is to protect the guesser, then the rule of "surrender" is naturally to protect the questioner.
Let’s give an example... If there is no "surrender" option, then all guessers can use a very simple tactic to ensure that they win money, which is to start from the first round. Only the lowest amount of bets are placed in each round, and then bet on all the remaining money while ensuring that they can guess the round.
In this way, as long as the answer can be guessed within fifty rounds, the guesser will be invincible; this does not count the amount of the "bet round" before the start of each game.
Therefore, the "Surrender" setting is established.
Of course, there are restrictions on "surrender", otherwise the questioner can also use this to achieve a stable win... For example, if the game has been in progress for more than ten to twenty rounds, it will be over and end when it is better.
In order to prevent this from happening, there is a "surrender fine".
In this numerical guessing duel, there are two formulas for calculating the surrender fine.
The first one is suitable for surrendering within the first twenty rounds. The formula is: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of this matchup* (50+number of completed rounds)% + 10% of the opponent's bet in this round + basic fine.
The second type is the formula used from the 21st round: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of this match* (50-number of completed rounds)% + 10% of the opponent's bet in this round + the basic fine.
The so-called "basic fine" is divided according to the current round number. The basic fine for surrendering within 1-10 rounds is 5% of the opponent's holding at the beginning of this match, and the basic fine for surrendering within 11-20 rounds is 10% of the opponent's holding at the beginning of this match. By round 21-30, it will rise to 20% of the opponent's holding at the beginning of this match... and from the 31st round, the basic fine will be directly zeroed.
Let’s give an example... In a certain matchup, both sides held 100,000 US dollars at the beginning, and the guessing side bets 1% in each round, losing 30,000 US dollars in total after thirty rounds; then, in the 31st round, he was sure to win, and at this time, he bets all the remaining 70,000 US dollars.
Seeing this, the questioner chose to surrender... At this time, the fine that the questioner needs to pay is 10% of the 100,000 US dollars multiplied by 20 (50-30)%, that is, 2,000 US dollars... plus 10% of the other party's bet amount this round, that is, 7,000 US dollars... plus zero basic fine, a total of 9,000 US dollars was handed over.
Although I spit out nine thousand at one time, it is much better than seventy thousand.
In short, when the questioner chooses to surrender, the showdown in this game is over. As for the example above, the result is that the questioner won US$21,000 from the guessing side.
After completing this part of the settlement, the two parties will settle the "bet rounds". Assuming that the guessing party had declared "within one hundred rounds" before, and the questioner called the lowest $1,000, then... at this time, the questioner will hand over the guessing party another $1,000, and the final net difference is 20,000.
The above is the general plot of the questioner choosing the timing of surrender by "the guessing party improves the bet" under "the behavior of "the guessing party improves the bet".
So... under the same conditions, what if the questioner chooses the "stop when it's better" tactic?
I will not list the detailed calculation process here, let’s look at the results directly... It is based on the conditions that both parties have 100,000 US dollars and the guesser bets 1,000 each time.
If the questioner surrenders in the first round (note that the additional percentage of the first round is 50+0, not 50+1), lose 10100, and the second round is 10200, and then add 100 US dollars for every round after that. Until the tenth round.
In other words, if the questioner surrenders in any of the first ten rounds, he will lose money.
At the beginning of the eleventh round, due to the increase in the basic fine, the fine for surrender in this round jumped to 16,100, and then 100 was added to each round. In this way, in the 18th round, the questioner will have the opportunity to "stop when you see it is good". If you surrender in this round, the fine is 16,800, and the amount earned in the previous seventeenth round was 17,000, so you earned 200, but... don't forget that there is still money for the "betting round". If you count that, you still have to pay... Therefore, you have to wait for another round. By the 19th round, you will earn 18,000, and the fine is 16,900+1,000. At this time, you will only earn 100...
Therefore, in the first twenty rounds, if you want to "win securely", there are only two opportunities, that is, surrender in the 19th and 20th rounds. According to the formula, the former can earn 100, and the latter can earn 1000...
But... it is rare to be a questioner once, and you will finish it if you make a thousand dollars? Don't forget that this game is a "striving for the first place" and does not mean that you can qualify without losing money.
So, let’s take a look at the beginning of the 21st round…
The formula changed at the beginning of this round, but the basic fine also increased again. The fine for the 21st round of surrender was 100, and then it decreased by 100 per round; it was obvious... From this round, the surrender mechanism began to tend to protect the questioner. Because after twenty rounds, the chance of guessing the answer being higher and higher.
In this way, if the 1000 in the betting round is counted, the "25th round" will be a watershed; the fine for this round is 22,700, plus the 1000 in the betting round is 700, but the money won by the questioner... is 24,000; of course, this is just earning 300, so this is not the point...
The point is that from this round, every round passed, the winning amount of the questioner who suddenly surrendered will increase by 1,100 US dollars.
After six rounds, when the 31st round, the "basic fine" is zeroed, and the questioner will suddenly get 20,000 more. In this round, if the guessing party does not raise the bet, the questioner will be fined only 2,100 US dollars after surrendering directly, and the money he won at this moment is already 30,000. Even if the money from the bet round is removed, the net profit of 26,900...
To sum up, the key confrontation of this number guessing game is between the 25th and 30th rounds... If the guesser cannot guess the correct answer before the 31st round, then the questioner can earn 29% of your chips as long as you surrender immediately. Even if you guessed it in the 31st round, it will only recover about 10% of your losses.
Of course, although I have said a lot, they are just theory.
In actual duels, various situations may occur...
Maybe someone can guess the answer within twenty-five rounds; maybe someone can raise the bargaining chips without guessing it; maybe someone will force the bet when he thinks he is right, or when he is watching the thirty rounds pass, but the other party will see through it and follow up...
On the gambling table, fraud, calculation, performance, discovery... anything can happen.
In the world of gambling, probability will not be learned to respect you, and the God of Luck does not exist.
The luck you get from praying for ten thousand times is worse than honing the skills you get from ten thousand times.
The weak will be defeated, encroached, crushed... and will not receive any sympathy.
Win and survive... is the only justice in this world.
…………
One minute later, Mr. Jing had written six numbers on the paper in front of him.
Then, he folded the paper, carefully protected it with his palm, and handed it to the man in suit and sunglasses next to the cart.
The latter took the paper carefully, turned around, and used its wide back to block the unconscious vision. Then he unfolded the paper and looked at the numbers on the paper.
Two seconds later, the man in the suit and sunglasses folded the paper again and put it into his top pocket.
He turned around, stood up to the table again, and then spoke to Mr. Jing, "Once the number is determined, it cannot be changed, so I need to confirm with you, are the six numbers just now... OK?"
"Yes." Mr. Jing replied firmly, "I'm sure."
"Yeah." The man in the suit and sunglasses nodded, "You have read the rules, but I still have to emphasize a few points..." He paused for a moment and continued, "First of all, if you are caught cheating, you will be immediately denied, and all the amount belongs to the other party." As he said, he reached out to a small device on the table and signaled, "Secondly, this timer on the table is similar to that used in chess competitions, and records the time spent on both sides; the total time spent by the guesser is forty-five minutes. If the answer is not guessed within this time, no matter what round it is currently in progress,
The amount of both parties and the amount of the 'bet round' is... They are all considered to be the 'complete defeat' of the guesser, and the holding of the perfect loser is also owned by the other party." He paused and said, "In addition, the time of the guesser's call bet, the time of the questioner's call bet, and the time of the questioner's feedback on the answers of the guesser, are calculated separately and must be completed within one minute, and the feedback time is only thirty seconds; those who violate the regulations will be fined the first time to get the upper limit of 1% of the holding of the money at the beginning, and the second time is 2%, and so on..."
The rules emphasized by the man in the suit are indeed very important. Needless to say, the punishment for cheating... The organizer has naturally calculated the situation of "malicious delay in time" when designing the game. At the high cost, "drag time" is an ugly and lacking technical content method, basically it is unlikely to appear.
In this way, the rhythm of the game can be kept compact and create considerable pressure...
And the various manifestations of the "guests" under pressure are exactly what the organizers want to see.
"Ah~Ah~I know, can you start?" Feng Bujue seemed a little impatient after hearing what the man in suit said.
The man in the suit did not answer him, but looked at each side of the showdown expressionlessly and raised his hand to the timer.
Chapter completed!