Chapter 288 Gold prices fall
The video of Chen Lidong's interview was broadcast on Dongzhu TV that night.
Some of his remarks have caused some repercussions in the industry.
The establishment of a gold exchange in mainland China is a general trend. More than a dozen cities are striving for it. Among them, Shanghai and Ji are the most vocal. Chen Lidong's statement about inspecting the establishment of the exchange is also reasonable.
People in the industry are more concerned about his analysis of gold market trends.
His judgment is actually in line with the views of most people, and there is something fishy about this rise in gold prices.
When the gold price shock began, the world's major gold merchants and investment banks followed Lennar's approach and all went short for hedging. Unexpectedly, two mining accidents disrupted the rhythm, and they also lost a lot of positions or were required to add margin.
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During this period, the gold producers in Rainbow Country and Gaman Country were having the most difficult time.
The Kloof gold mine in Rainbow Country has been closed, and its owner, Jintian Company, is under investigation by national authorities.
Including several other gold mines, the number of people on strike has reached more than 6,000, and direct economic losses caused by landslides, production shutdowns, and strikes have amounted to as much as 5 million U.S. dollars.
The Gras.berg gold mine in Gaman has suffered considerable losses. The rescue currently being carried out is just a show-off. Everyone knows that the workers underground cannot be rescued even if they are still alive. They will only be in the state of fossils in a few years.
Present.
To comfort the family, a pension of about 1 million dollars will be paid. Later, the company will have to undergo suspension of business for rectification and administrative penalties. The loss will not be less than 2 million dollars.
These mine owners in the Rainbow Country and the Garman Country are not fuel-efficient lamps. They spend Christmas anxiously. Suddenly, someone paid attention to Chen Lidong's speech in an interview with a reporter from Dongzhu TV. He responded to the sentence "Reiner is the same as them."
The victims of the accident were actually touched: What is the cause of the rise in gold prices?
It was an accident! A landslide and a flood happened one after another. How could such a coincidence happen?
Who will benefit from this gold mine accident and gold price fluctuations?
The mining tycoons of Rainbow Country and Gaman Country are not just for a living. Whether it is landslides or water leakage, they often occur in underground coal mines. Narrow tunnels such as gold mines are not common.
Workers' strikes are also weird. Workers in the Rainbow Country are treated like animals. Do animals know how to go on strike? They are obviously incited by others.
If you predict in advance that changes will happen, and plan your futures market early and prepare for it, it will be very scary if you think about it!
Check! The loss is not important, you will die if you know who is behind it!
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Clive has been very happy these days. Seizing Lennar's shares is the second step. The first step is to make a fortune in the gold futures market. This step is the most realistic.
He and several friends have their own division of labor. Some are responsible for causing accidents in Rainbow Kingdom and Garman. Jina is responsible for controlling the fund to operate futures in Fog City and Gotham. Clive personally comes to Dongzhu to contact Jipling.
, arranged the trap for Lena, and was responsible for making profits by going long in the Dongzhu Gold Market.
So far, all operations are in order, two accidents have occurred one after another, Lennar has also liquidated its position as scheduled, and its position has been cut in half. The gold price has started to catch the wind, and the upward trend will continue for some time.
In Australia, news of the setback in Lennar's investment has spread, and the stock price has begun to decline. Clive and his friends are waiting to start buying stocks at a certain point, and depending on the situation, they can initiate a hostile takeover or make a profit from the difference.
In short, Reiner must be trampled under his feet and their status must not be challenged.
Clive was a little worried because Kipling disappeared after completing the illegal operation on Lena's account, and he still can't be contacted.
He took it for granted that the cunning Kipling had gone into hiding and was hiding in a corner, waiting for his side to achieve victory before coming out.
...
On January 4, 2000, the first Monday of the new millennium, gold futures exchanges opened one after another, and the world gold price rose to $380 per ounce.
This is not a good thing for gold production companies.
When the December contract was settled, Lennar again reduced its position to 200,000 lots so that there would be enough margin in the account to maintain the position.
At the same time, we had to choose a deferred transaction and extend the contract to February 2000.
As Chen Lidong said, as gold producers, in order to hedge, they generally conduct short selling operations in the futures market. If the price of gold rises, the futures exchange will notify them of additional margin calls, which virtually increases financial costs.
It is even more painful for those futures brokers who predict that the gold price will fall. In two weeks, the gold price has risen by $40, an increase of more than 11%. Although it is not a disaster, it is still a considerable loss. How should I explain it to investors?
If this continues, it could easily lead to divestment.
Gold prices rose amid volatility in January, but not by much.
At this time, Lena's gold futures trading in Wudu began to liquidate quickly.
If bulls want to make a profit, they have to buy at a low price and sell at a high price.
How to smoothly close a position at a high price is a test of investors' vision.
If you close the position too early and the price is still rising, you choose to sell, and there is not much room for profit; if you close the position too late, the price has already fallen, which will also reduce the profit scale.
There are two main ways to close a position, one is to sell the contract, and the other is to sell the goods. Selling the goods is considered delivery.
When Lennar Company opened a position on the Wudu Gold Exchange, it purchased contracts at a price of 345 to 350 dollars per ounce and held more than 500,000 lots.
The current price is 380 dollars per ounce, and theoretically the profit from this batch of warehouse receipts is more than 30 dollars per ounce.
The 500,000 lots were 50 million ounces of gold, with a profit of $30 per ounce. The profit scale from this transaction reached $1.5 billion.
To whom will the high-priced warehouse receipts be transferred when the position is closed? A small number of them are gold users, such as jewelry processors and electronic product processors.
There are also some investors who believe that the price of gold will continue to rise and are still taking long positions and increasing their positions.
In addition, there are short positions, short positions that were forced to sell due to insufficient account margin due to rising gold prices, or customers whose positions were liquidated by the exchange.
For example, if Lena chooses to close the short position in Dongzhu now, he will have to buy a 380 warehouse receipt to cover the 340 short position. This will be a huge loss. The potential loss of 200,000 lots of 20 million ounces of gold is at least 6
100 million, even if you sell Reiner, you won't be able to get that much money.
Therefore, Lennar's account in Dongzhu can only add margin calls to maintain its position when the gold price rises.
Liquidating a position is also called cutting or stopping the loss. When the position is not liquidated, the loss is only nominal. When the position is liquidated, the loss becomes a reality. Last month, Lainer was liquidated by half of the position in the Dongzhu gold futures market, which can directly determine that the account funds have been lost.
Half of it.
This is also the reason why the circle ridiculed Lennar's investment failure.
The failure of Lennar's investment directly caused its stock price to fall. Those who held Lennar's shares also cut their losses and sold their shares at low prices.
The Clives are eagerly preparing to close their positions at a high price in the gold market, and then immediately transfer funds back to the stock market, shorting Lennar's stock, and bringing Lennar back to the starting point.
At this moment, Lennar Holdings released three pieces of news in a row, causing a stir.
The first news: Lennar Holdings accepted a group of customer entrustments at the Wudu Gold Futures Exchange, using $400 million to be long gold futures, helping customers achieve large-scale profits. These customers, in accordance with the gambling agreement, asked Lennar
A large amount of transaction fees were paid, totaling up to 15 million U.S. dollars, and 15 million U.S. dollars of paid-in funds turned the company from losses to profits.
The second news: Lennar Co., Ltd. has reached an agreement with Far East Polar Mining. The $200 million payable of Polar Mining will be entrusted to Lennar for futures trading.
The message only contained this sentence, so some shareholders called the company to ask for details, and the feedback they received was:
Didn’t Lennar use $200 million to short-sell and hedge in the gold futures market? The $200 million was actually the payment payable to Jiji Mining, which was supposed to be given to others in February. Now Jiji Mining said it does not need to pay it back, and in the futures
The market is just throwing it away, waiting for the gold price to fall and turn a profit before making delivery.
The third piece of news: Lennar, as a member of Wudu Gold Exchange, is preparing to sell a batch of gold on behalf of customers. This batch of gold currently amounts to 80 tons. At the same time, Lennar, after evaluating the production capacity of these customers, believes that since 2000
Starting from July, these customers will be able to supply 10-20 tons of gold to the market every month.
Three messages, a set of combo punches.
This three-click message clearly tells everyone:
Although due to the appearance of an insider, our futures account was full and the position was liquidated by the exchange, resulting in large financial losses.
However, through hard work, especially the support of customers, the losses have been recovered, and many benefits have emerged.
The positions in the futures market have been converted into positions on behalf of Jiji Mining, and losses and profits are no longer directly related to Lena.
And Lena once again received a big order, using his status as a member of the Wudu Gold Exchange to accept entrustments from many customers to conduct gold transactions. The first 80 tons of gold was worth 970 million U.S. dollars at the current price, and he could charge a large transaction fee.
Many gold brokers were a little worried after hearing the news.
On the one hand, they were worried that Lennar would use the 80 tons of gold for delivery. Sure enough, some members received delivery notices from the exchange and obtained LBMA delivery orders.
Getting this thing is equivalent to receiving gold.
The spot value of futures is the same, but these members always feel tired of playing drums and passing flowers to get the flowers.
Because at this time, the second situation they were worried about appeared: with the news released by Lena and the delivery of 80 tons of gold, the price of gold in the futures market began to fall after hitting $385.
Why did it fall?
Because those long investors began to reduce their positions and withdraw funds from the gold futures market.
In this case, the price of gold fell very quickly.
The source of this period's gold price shock is insufficient production capacity caused by major disasters and accidents in gold production companies. The contradiction between supply and demand has caused the gold price to rise.
Now Lennar sells 80 tons of gold, and will sell 20 tons of gold every month in the future. The missing production capacity has been made up, supply and demand can be balanced, and the price has risen by a hair!
Therefore, those who were long began to quickly get out of the trap and sold the contracts at a large low price, so the price of gold fell.
The price of gold fell from 385 to 340 in almost a week, and it is still falling.
Chapter completed!