Volume Fourteen, Smoke of Gunpowder, Chapter Three, Secret Alliance
If relations with Russia have no impact on the political situation of the Republic, it is definitely a "concave matter".
At the beginning of the year, Russia sent troops to Kazakhstan, suppressing the military coup with lightning speed, supporting Prime Minister Popojevic who fled to Russia to return to power. Without taking back President Liukic, who fled to the Republic, had a significant impact on the political situation in the Republic that year. According to unconfirmed news, at the beginning of the year, Popojevic announced the establishment of a provisional government and held the general election in advance under the supervision of Russia, the Republic formulated a set of combat plans to blitzkrieg attacks on Kazakhstan. It should be noted that according to the Kazakhstan constitution, after the coup was quelled, Liukic was still the legal leader and there was no reason to hold the general election in advance. In other words, the Republic can completely imitate the sending troops to Vietnam many years ago, and sending troops to Kazakhstan in the name of supporting Liukic to return to power.
The reality is that due to the upcoming election, the Republic did not act rashly.
Although after Popojevic won the general election, the Republic withdrew its ambassador to Kazakhstan, reduced diplomatic relations to agency, and firmly refused to recognize the legitimacy of the Popojevic regime, and still believed that Liukic was the legitimate leader of Sakhstan, under the circumstances at that time, unless the Republic wanted to follow the method of dealing with India and defeat Russia with a large-scale war, the Republic would not be able to do more on the Kazakhstan issue.
Even so, this still shocked the government and the opposition of the Republic.
It can be said that due to this, China-Russia relations immediately fell to freezing point, and the two sides were at a loss. Although under the strong control of the Republic's authorities, no violent actions against Russia broke out in the Republic, according to an investigation conducted by a private agency at the end of the years, Russia has caught up with the United States and is regarded as one of the biggest threats by the Republic's people, and is also regarded as one of the most unfriendly countries to the Republic.
It was against this background that Pei Chengyi announced his participation in the election.
It was also in this atmosphere that Pei Chengyi won the first direct election in the Republic with a support rate of 8 or above, bringing a perfect end to the second round of political reform.
Objectively speaking, the deterioration of Sino-Russia relations is also related to some actions of the Republican authorities.
Let’s not talk about anything else, just take Kazakhstan as an example. If, as Al Jazeera reported, Kazakhstan’s military coup was made by Russian intelligence agencies. The purpose is to create an opportunity for Russia to intervene and let Kazakhstan, which is getting closer and closer to the Republic, return to Russia’s arms, then as the world’s largest intelligence agency, the MIIS will not be unaware of this, and it is even less likely to be aware of it. You should know that the political changes in the poor countries on the African continent are under the control of the MIIS. Kazakhstan is the third largest neighbor of the Republic. Or the largest country in Central Asia, the MIIS will naturally not take it lightly. In other words, if the MIIS knows that the Russian intelligence agencies are making trouble in Kazakhstan, but stand by and let them do whatever they want, the problem is not so simple.
It can be said that this is the biggest doubt in the entire incident.
According to the deleted report, as early as before the outbreak of the Peninsula War, the Military Intelligence Bureau was paying attention to Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan. According to the situation at that time, there were two major views on "East Advance and "East Advance." within the republic, namely, which direction should we choose when breaking through the strategic encirclement of the United States. Although we chose to advance eastwardly afterwards, the republic authorities would definitely consider entering Central Asia under the circumstances at that time. The reason is very simple. The United States was trapped in the quagmire of the Iranian War and it was difficult for us to get out of here for a while. With the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, it was a foregone conclusion. Although Central Asia is Russia's backyard, and except Afghanistan, several other countries are franchised republics of the former Soviet Union. They are also members of the CIS, and
Russia has a close relationship, but it is not very close to the Republic, but Russia is in a weak position and has no time to take care of itself; the Republic is like the rising sun in the east, not only its national strength is thriving, and its international influence is greatly enhanced. From various perspectives, even if the Central Asian International will not all seek refuge in the Republic, it will also make a good deal with the Republic. In this case, the Republic only needs to rely on its alliance with Pakistan, its influence in Afghanistan, and its economic work to control the Central Asian region, break through the strategic encirclement woven by the United States, and obtain a shortcut to advance to the Middle East. In fact, after the Western Year, the Republic did advance along this route, and took several important countries step by step.
In other words, deliberately showing weakness in Kazakhstan is definitely a strategic move for the Republic.
According to the analysis of the deletion, there are three main reasons why the Republic did not compete with Russia in Kazakhstan. First, the Republic's authorities did not think of defeating Russia with a local war, nor did they think of using a major power with thousands of nuclear warheads to test the strategic defense system. Second, the Republic's authorities hope to use this strategic concession to meet Russia's needs for foreign expansion and form a strategic balance between Russia in Central Asia and avoid wasting too much national strength in this direction. Third, Russia sent troops to Kazakhstan, which has a strong warning to some moderate forces in the Republic, and can awaken those who are still fantasizing about peace, thereby gathering national strength.
In short, it is a bad thing to leave Kazakhstan to Russia from the perspective of the Republic.
The key is whether it is good or bad,
To put it simply, if Russia is satisfied with the achievements it has been achieved, or if the Republic can curb Russia's expansion ambitions, this is a good thing. If Russia is not satisfied and the Republic cannot curb Russia's expansion ambitions through non-war means, if it wants to make it a good thing, it must defeat Russia on the battlefield.
There is no doubt that Russia is definitely not a country that can be easily satisfied.
Looking back at history, we can find that Russia has always been a country with dissatisfaction with desires and a country that has risen in desires.
Affected by this, it is not difficult to understand that Kashuiyi is carrying heavy burdens in his youth.
Judging from the situation at that time, even if the Republic and the United States fight a world war, it is likely to be a war with strategic defense as the main force and relatively limited scale, that is, the two sides of the war mainly decide the outcome through military competitions outside the homeland. The winning side will not easily attack the other side, and the defeated side will not easily give up resistance. In the view of some military experts, the Republic and the United States will compete in all aspects in outer space, suborbital space, atmosphere and ocean, and engage in ground competition in some secondary directions, but the main force of the war is definitely not ground troops. It is precisely this way, the war preparations between the Republic and the United States focus on the Sky Army and the Navy. The strength spent on the army is not very large.
It is not difficult to understand the position of the two superpowers. Even if nuclear weapons have not completely withdrawn from the historical stage, even if the strategic defense systems of both sides are deeply rooted, even if they lose the ability to intercept external space, they can still be deployed on the local and oceans to disintegrate the strategic strikes of the other party. However, under the shadow of nuclear war, unless one side can bear the huge losses of the nuclear war, it will not rashly attack the other party's local area. It can even be said that as long as the two sides decide the outcome of the battle in outer space, suborbital space and oceans, the war will end in the form of a ceasefire or peace talks, and the handover of world hegemony will be completed. At that time, either the Republic will replace the United States or the United States will continue to dominate the world.
With Russia's intervention, the problem is not that simple.
From the perspective of the Republic, dealing with Russia is naturally much easier than dealing with the United States. According to external estimates, as long as the Republic can defend its strategic defense line, that is, withstand Russia's strategic counterattack. The Republic's army can sweep most of Russia east of the Ural Mountains within one year, and may even enter Russia's European region from the north coast of the Caspian Sea to capture Moscow to end the war.
There is no doubt that the United States will never allow the Republic to slaughter Rose.
Although in the long run, even if the Republic collapses with the Russian Federation, the United States will not be able to live in peace. Because Russia will inevitably replace the Republic and become the opponent of the United States, based on the wartime situation, as long as the Republic turns against Russia, the United States will win over Russia, not only will it provide Russia with various materials and equipment, but it will even directly send troops to fight against the Republic's army on the vast plains of Siberia.
Returning to the Republic's position, the problem becomes complicated.
To put it bluntly, if the United States sends troops to Russia, the Republic will have no choice but to regard the complete defeat of the United States as the basic goal of the war. Of course, if you want to completely defeat the United States, you will first completely defeat Russia. In this case, the Republic must put the army first and ground war first. Mu Yong doubted that as a former general of the army, Pei Chengyi was not only a national leader, but also a military commander.
It is precisely this that citizens of the Republic voted for Pei Chengyi, who was already prosperous.
Of course, the impact of this incident is not only reflected in the Republic's election.
Shortly after the end of the year, Pei Chengyi made a state visit to France, Germany and Italy as the deputy head of state, and signed the Rome Treaty with the European Collective Security Organization, formally determined the friendly cooperation relationship between the Republic and Europe in the field of security.
More importantly, during the visit, Pei Chengyi reached a very important secret agreement with the leaders of France, Germany and Italy.
Of course, this agreement was not made public until after World War III.
According to relevant information released by the Republic authorities, during his visit to Paris, Pailin and Rome, Pei Chengyi, as the leader of the Republic, formally proposed an alliance agreement with the three major EU countries. He also actively proposed that as long as the EU can guarantee the EU's hegemony in the Mediterranean region in the next war, voluntarily withdrew from Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Egypt and Syria, and only retained its influence in Kurdistan. Kurdistan officially announced it to be an independent country in Daoshao, and it was recognized by many countries, including the Republic, and recognized the EU's interests in the North Atlantic region.
The reality is that France, Germany and Italy are more long-term than what the Republican authorities consider.
After accepting Pei Chengyi's request for alliance, the French President put forward a new intention on behalf of the three major powers, that is, when Russia declares war on the Republic as a US allies, the EU can declare war on Russia with conditions, that is, to participate in the war as a republic. For this reason, the French President put forward three conditions. First, the Cool Alliance only declares war on Russia. Without the United States declaring war on the EU, the EU will not declare war on the United States. Second, the Republic must recognize the EU's old in Ula, that is, the Lisch EU in the Greater Europe absorbed former CIS member states such as Ukraine after the war, and even had to abide by the EU's transformation actions on Russia. Third, the Republic recognizes the dominance of the EU in the Middle East, that is, from Oman in the east and to Palestine in the narrow Arab region, and the Republic must gradually withdraw from the region after the war.
There is no doubt that the EU's ambitions are very obvious.
The problem is that the Republic’s authorities did not accept this proposal. It is not that the EU does not declare war on the United States, nor that it is that the EU will control the Greater European region. It is not that the Republic’s authorities are unlikely to make concessions on the Middle East issue, at least that it is impossible to withdraw from the Middle East entirely.
It is precisely because over the years, the Republic and France, Germany and Italy only formed a primary alliance.
Anyway, this is definitely a big event that can change the world pattern.
It is not difficult to understand that the EU chooses to turn to the republic at this time. For the EU, especially for France, Germany and Italy, which are determined to unify the entire Europe, Russia has always been a potential threat. Moreover, many years ago, Russia used various means to block Ukraine from the EU's door and blocked the EU's eastward expansion. The EU failed to become the "European EU" according to the plan. It is still just "the EU in Western Europe objectively speaking, and the EU has never regarded Russia as a European country. It just hopes to weaken Russia by absorbing "emerging" countries like Ukraine and Belarus to enhance the EU's own hegemony, thereby improving the EU's international status and influence, accelerating the process of integration, and making the EU a hegemon.
From this perspective, the only option for the EU is to form an alliance with the Republic.
In any case, when Russia is about to turn against the Republic, the United States has no reason to give up its ally for the sake of the EU. In fact, when the EU repeatedly stated that there is no reason to be an enemy of the Republic, the United States expressed its intention to win over Russia. With the consistent measures of the United States, when it wins over Russia, it will definitely try to appease the EU and stabilize the EU. The problem is that the United States in the century-field era is no longer the United States in the early century. In the situation where the world is about to undergo drastic changes, unless the US authorities can provide benefits that are enough to make the EU excited, the EU has no reason to be the US cushion. There is no reason to lose itself to fulfill it.
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In fact, this is also the purpose of France, Germany and Italy actively promoting EU integration.
If Europe wants to become a European Europe and fundamentally protect the interests of Europe, the EU must adopt an independent foreign policy to serve Europe's interests, rather than continue to act as a shameful figure of the United States.
It can be seen from this that Russia's bold army in Kazakhstan actually pushed Europe to the Republic.
Although judging from the situation at that time, it was impossible for the Republic and the EU to formally form an alliance. It was even more impossible to form a comprehensive alliance treaty with political and military integration, it was enough for the international situation facing major changes to the Republic and the EU to secretly form an alliance relationship. Especially for the Republic authorities, being able to form a binding and meaningful treaty with the EU is indeed an amazing achievement.
You know, the Republic has never expected to fight side by side with the EU, but just hopes that the EU will not interfere when dealing with the United States.
In other words, stabilizing the EU is still the primary national policy of the Republic.
In this way, as long as the leaders of the Republic have sufficient strategic vision, they will not take any precautions after learning that Russia will send troops to Kazakhstan, and will even secretly help. According to speculation by some Western news media, the military coup in Kazakhstan was successful because the intelligence agencies of the Republic deliberately exaggerated the power of the coup when warning Liu Kic, so that the president, who was able to use the presidential guards and garrison troops to suppress the rebellion. After the coup broke out,
In just a minute, he took the Republic's diplomatic plane and left Kazakhstan, creating an atmosphere of "Russia dominates the Eurasian continent", thereby inspiring the EU's plan to change. Judging from the time of Pei Chengyi's visit to Europe, this possibility does exist. If Pei Chengyi included the secret alliance treaty signed with France, Germany and Italy during his visit, it is certain that the Republic's authorities had already planned and used Russia's actions in Kazakhstan, and even made the Russian authorities think that the Republic would not intervene.
In short, no one can tell what role the Republican authorities played in the coup in Kazakhstan.
Of course, the greatest significance of this military coup is not the things mentioned above. In the words of an international expert, Russia's dispatch of troops to Kazakhstan, blocking the elected president from the country, and supporting the pro-Russian regime, has the greatest impact of helping the US authorities to strengthen their determination to launch a world war.
The so-called "one slap" cannot be slap, without the intervention of the United States. None of the aforementioned means.
From the perspective of the United States, after years, there is one factor that determines the attitude of the United States. That is whether the United States is likely to win the world war. If so, the United States will be more proactive. If not, the United States will try to delay time.
Chapter completed!