Volume Fourteen, Smoke of Gunpowder, Chapter 116, Great Power Stage
Compared with the Jewish issue... the Arab problem is so complicated.
Nominally, "Arabs" is a national title, but in terms of specific ethnic divisions, the Arabs are very similar to the Han people, that is, there is no fixed basic culture recognized by all members. In a broad sense, Arabic and those who speak Arabic are all Arabs, while some people who do not speak Arabic and do not use Arabic also consider themselves Arabic.
To put it simply, “Arab people, small is actually a very wide term.
Influenced by historical, geography and other factors, especially in history, the Arabs created a great empire spanning the three continents of Europe, Asia and Africa. Therefore, the distribution range of the Arabs is very wide and the regional differences are very obvious.
In this way, it is almost impossible to unify the Arabs under one government.
After World War II, influenced by the national independence movement, the Arab world made such an attempt, hoping to unify all Arabs under one government. This effort was in the century-long era, with the Arab League of Nations defeat in the Third Middle East War. In the following decades, because the United States-led world pattern did not fundamentally change. The Arab world's efforts not only did not achieve any results, but became out of reach after several regional wars.
It was not until the end of the century-old era that the United States was defeated on the battlefield of Iran and the Republic rose in the East. The efforts to unify the Arab world saw new hope. However, this was just hope. Because the "Arab world" is a vast meaning of an area of more than 10,000 square kilometers, with a population of more than 4, including more than 20 countries, whether it is the Republic or other countries that want to get involved in the Middle East, they are not very interested in the "great cause of unification" of the Arab world, and even deliberately avoid it.
The Republic lingers on the Jewish issue and is most closely related to the Arabs.
To put it bluntly, if the Arab problem cannot be properly resolved, that is, preventing the Arab states from being unified under one government without angering the Arabs, and driving the Jews out of the Middle East will be of no benefit to the Republic and any other major powers.
Obviously, Europe does not want a powerful Arab country to appear around.
You should know that the Arab world not only includes the Middle East and the Gulf, but also North Africa and even parts of the Balkans in Europe. That is to say, if a centripetal force towards unity appears in the Arab world, Europe will also become a victim.
Fortunately, Europe and the Republic have a common interest on this issue.
One of the most important provisions of the Cairo Agreement is the commitment of the Republic to no longer support the establishment of a unified Arab state.
As a compensatory agreement, Europe will support the establishment of a "Pan Arab League of Nations."
Obviously, these two agreements have absolutely far-reaching impact. Some people believe that this is the fuse of the division of the Arab world. Some people believe that this is the beginning of chaos in the Middle East. Some people believe that this is the root of the turmoil in the post-war world. Some people believe that this is the struggle between the East and the West.
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No matter what, these are two hegemony agreements, two hegemony agreements that do not take into account the interests of the Arabs at all.
On the surface, the Republic was under pressure from Europe and was forced to make concessions to sacrifice the interests of the Arabs in exchange for their own interests. On the other hand, it can also be considered that Europe had to compromise with the Republic on the issue of Arabs in order to help the Jews.
It can be said that neither side wants to take responsibility.
When both parties want to shirk responsibility, the result is that both parties have to bear the responsibility.
To be honest, these two agreements are enough to make the Arabs 4Bs disheartened.
Of course, behind these two public agreements; there are many unknown secrets.
Mu Yong doubted that the Republic and Europe had already planned on the sphere of influence of "going to Israel, the Middle East and even the entire pan-Arab region on this basis.
According to some unproven and perhaps never, long before the Cairo Agreement was signed, the Republic and the EU reached a crucial secret agreement, which clearly divided the sphere of influence at the intersection of Eurasia and Africa.
The North Africa region west of Egypt will be the traditional sphere of influence in Europe. That is to say, after the war, the Republic will withdraw its troops from Morocco. Because the Gibraltar Fortress does not belong to the North African region or Arab countries, the Republic did not agree to withdraw its troops from the Gibraltar Fortress and hand over the dominance of the region to Europe. In return, Europe will promise not to expand to the North African region, that is, not to absorb North African countries to join the "Greater European State" established after the war.
The West Asia region east of Jordan will be the traditional sphere of influence of the Republic. Because Europe has no troops in the region, the post-war planning of the region is entirely dominated by the Republic, and Europe needs to do it. It is just to accept and recognize the Republic's actions in the region. In return, the Republic promises to share West Asia with Europe in areas that do not involve national sovereignty, such as economy, trade, etc.
.From Egypt to Jordan, it will be a buffer zone for the Republic and Europe.
In fact, this is the core area of the so-called "Pan Arab League".
Although it is much different from the Republic's pre-war plan, after all, Syria and Iraq are excluded from this small core area, and Egypt itself has a strong sense of independence and autonomy, so the Republic is
Heart, the influence of the Arab League will definitely not be much greater, and the influence of the car is less anti-sex, but Egypt has been strict in the expansion of North Africa, so as long as Europe does not do too much, "The Alliance of Pan-Arab countries will definitely become a framework organization, and there will be no great influence of the concubine.
Because Europe is also afraid of a powerful Arab country, the Republic's concerns are completely redundant.
To put it bluntly, the biggest victim of this secret agreement is the Arab world. To be precise, other Arab countries except Egypt.
Because the fundamental interests are guaranteed, both the Republic and Europe are beneficiaries.
During the war, Egypt maintained its greatest benefit and became the central country of the Arab world. There is no doubt that Egypt received benefits, and it was also huge benefits. In comparison, Syria and Iraq were victorious countries, and they paid a huge price for the war, but they only received some false names with little practical significance.
Not to mention Egypt, even Morocco, a defeated country, is not as good as that. From this perspective, it is strange that the Arab world will not be divided after the war.
It is not difficult to understand why the post-war Arab world became the root of turmoil.
As the most powerful Arab country, Egypt will betray other Arab countries for its own interests. Although after the war, Egypt's status in the Middle East and North Africa was recognized by the Republic and Europe, and was recognized as a regional power, it was also recognized by Arab countries like Jordan and Palestine. However, Egypt's influence is only limited to this small triangle.
In a sense, Europe did not gain much benefit from this secret agreement to divide the Arab world.
If you look at it a little broader, you can discover it. Europe has made great concessions on the Arab issue. On the Eurasian continent, although Europe has sent troops to Russia and divided Russia with the Republic in a small European region, and established a new Russian Federation with the Republic after the war, stabilized the front line and used a Russia that is not too weak to block the Republic thousands of miles away, Europe has lost its strategic initiative and the space for expansion to the east has been completely blocked. From the standpoint of Europe, in addition to developing on the opposite side of the Atlantic, the only option is to cross the Mediterranean Sea and go south to the African continent. If Europe wants to gain a foothold on the African continent, it must first control the North Africa region north of the Sahara.
In fact, this is also the basic expansion policy that Europe has adhered to for decades.
To be honest, Europe refuses to make concessions on the Jewish issue first, but it does not want the Republic to interfere in North Africa through the Middle East.
The problem is that the competition between countries depends on strength, not willingness.
In the case where Israel must be protected, Europe can only sacrifice its own interests.
As a result, the republic's army stopped moving forward on the Golan Heights, and Egypt, which had always been jealous of Europe's expansion, became the republic's thug.
To put it bluntly, Egypt, which tastes the sweetness, will definitely cause a lot of trouble for Europe.
Not to mention anything else, it is difficult for Europe to take over the entire North African region under the obstruction of Egypt.
Under Egypt's obstruction, it is unlikely that Europe will cross the Sahara Desert and extend its tentacles into the "Hei Feizhe".
From this small point of view, the Republic not only did not make concessions, but instead took retreat as advance, leaving the problem to Europe, allowing Europe to stand on the opposite side of the Arab world, and then came forward to mediate, thus completing the strategic siege of Europe at the lowest cost.
Of course, Europe is not a fool and will not understand the strategic intentions of the Republic.
This is also the reason why Europe actively supports the "Pan Arab League of States". A powerful Arab country will pose a threat to Europe, and a unified Arab world can pose a threat to the Republic. The Republic supports Egypt to make a difference in North Africa. Then Europe supports Egypt to show its performance in the Arab world.
Obviously, this is why Egypt profited.
The problem is that Egypt is only a regional power, and it does not even have the foundation to become a quasi-magnificent power. More importantly, the Arab world is divided and Egypt's comprehensive strength is only 20% of the entire Arab world. Therefore, even if it can use the struggle between the Republic and Europe to achieve unprecedented development, Egypt cannot become the center of Arabia, or at least it cannot become the center of Arabia alone.
Greece is the fatal point of Europe, and Europe must defend Greece.
To defend Greece, you have to control Türkiye.
Affected by this, Europe has no choice but to take over this mess when the Republic does not want to clean up the mess.
Of course, in a sense, this is not necessarily a bad thing.
From a strategic perspective, this pushed Europe's strategic defense line in the direction of Asia Minor eastward by at least four kilometers, making the Republic unable to reach the European continent through Turkey. It also could not make full use of Russia's Black Sea estuary, thus greatly reducing the strategic space of the Republic in the Mediterranean region that can have a significant impact on the European continent.
More importantly, Europe has gained an opportunity to solve the Cyprus problem.
To be precise, European powers have gained the opportunity to use the Cyprus issue to influence Greece.
Although there are serious territorial and territorial waters disputes between Greece and Türkiye, the key to the conflict between the two countries lies in Cyprus, that is, the conflict between the Greeks and Turkish peoples living on this island.
As long as you make full use of the Cyprus issue, European powers can keep Greece in Europe, rather than throwing it into the arms of the republic.
Of course, using Turkey can also increase Europe's influence in the Islamic world. You should know that if calculated based on population, Turkey is the third largest Islamic country after Indonesia and Pakistan, and it is the top five countries in the Islamic world with comprehensive strength. Because it borders Iran, Europe can also use Turkey to have an impact on this country with third place in comprehensive strength in the Islamic world.
More importantly, the strategic defense space in the east of Europe is very limited, so if you want to block the Republic and disintegrate the strategic encirclement built by the Republic, Europe's best choice is to make full use of the surrounding areas, especially Islamic countries, so that the Republic cannot limit the living space in Europe as it pleases.
The Republic is creating trouble for Europe, and Europe is also creating trouble for the Republic.
Only when the Republic has to pay attention to other things can Europe have the opportunity to break through the encirclement and develop from a regional force limited to the continent and the North Atlantic to a global force. Of course, this will take a long process.
Just as Egypt will not let go of its own interests and work hard for other countries, Islamic countries that are capable of dialogue with great powers will not willingly act as thugs of great powers.
For thousands of years, there has been no peace in the Middle East.
It turns out that even though the Republic was the only superpower in the last forty years of the 21st century, the Middle East will still not be peaceful even when the great cause of unification of human civilization is still out of reach.
This crossroads of the world is destined to be the stage for a great power!
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Chapter completed!