It is said that "the gods fight and the people suffer", Frederick's visit to China is worthy of...

On the afternoon of August 8, South Korean President Park Tae-hyun issued a statement at the Presidential Office of the Blue House, supporting China and the United States to hold the highest-level formal meeting, hoping that China and the United States can play an active role in resolving neighboring issues and make significant contributions. South Korea is willing to make efforts and contributions to regional stability and peace.

Subsequently, when inspecting the Pyongyang People's Army's headquarters, Zhang Zecheng, the first vice chairman of the North Korean National Defense Commission (North Korea's No. 3 leader), said that North Korea hopes that the Republic and the United States can make substantial contributions to maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and that North Korea will also make efforts for regional peace and stability.

South Korea and North Korea have made positive statements, expressing their hope that the Republic and the United States can make a difference on the Japanese nuclear issue.

South Korea's attitude is easy to understand. Japan secretly develops nuclear weapons and does not have much threat to the United States in the short term. Because the territorial and territorial dispute between China and Japan has been "resolved". Although the Japanese official has never admitted that the Diaoyu Islands belong to China and has not made concessions on the issue of demarcation of the East China Sea, Japan has basically acknowledged the fait accompli. When the strategic strike force is not enough to make China feel afraid, Japan will not easily provoke China. The four northern islands issue has been around for a long time, and Russia's attitude has never changed, and Japan is unlikely to attack Russia. As long as Japan no longer needs the national security guarantees provided by the United States, South Korea will suffer first.

Standing in South Korea, we are in a dilemma against the Japanese nuclear issue.

If extreme policies are adopted and nuclear weapons are developed, let alone whether South Korea has enough strength, even if there is, it will not be able to pass the US level. As long as the United States no longer provides security guarantees to South Korea, South Korea will first have to deal with threats from the north, rather than threats across the strait. In this case, Japan's nuclear issue has become a secondary issue.

If negative policies are adopted and national strategic security is completely entrusted to the United States, let alone whether the United States will win the fire for South Korea, even if it does, the United States will not do anything to Japan. If Japan brazenly launches a war, relying on its conventional military force far exceeding South Korea and does not use nuclear weapons in the war, the United States will definitely stand idly by.

The dilemma makes South Korea's diplomatic transformation space very limited.

In this way, South Korea can only pin its hopes on the United States and China, hoping that China and the United States can reach an agreement on the Japanese nuclear issue and take substantial actions.

North Korea suddenly changed its attitude, which made people feel incomprehensible.

In the eyes of the outside world, North Korea must have been under pressure from the Republic, which has changed its anti-US policy for decades and has put forward an attitude of willingness to cooperate with the United States on the Japanese nuclear issue. In fact, North Korea has changed its attitude at this time. The biggest reason is not the influence of the Republic, but to avoid causing trouble.

Japan's "reason" to develop nuclear weapons is to deal with North Korea's nuclear threat.

As the poorest country in the world (North Korea's GDP in 2020 was only 100 million yuan. The per capita national output value was 2,100 yuan, only 1/28 of the Republic). North Korea has put the whole country into developing nuclear weapons. However, because the precision processing industry and the electronics industry are very backward, it has not made a breakthrough in miniaturization of nuclear warheads. According to external estimates, North Korea will not have more than 15 nuclear explosive devices. Can use missiles, and there will be no more than 5 carriers of fighter jets. There are serious problems with reliability.

If Japan develops a nuclear weapon, it will first point its finger at North Korea.

Under this circumstance, all the nuclear devices in North Korea became decorations and lost their deterrent effect.

North Korea's positive attitude shows that the top leaders of North Korea have realized that Japan's development of nuclear weapons will completely break the strategic balance of Northeast Asia, forcing South Korea to adopt extreme policies and break the balanced situation on the Korean Peninsula. Although North Korea is always calling for force to unify South Korea, the war begins and it is still a question of who is unified by whom.

This reflects the concerns of the "Kin family" from one aspect.

As the Kim family, which has controlled North Korea for decades, peace is more precious than anything else. If the situation on the peninsula continues, the Kim family can obtain immeasurable benefits from more than 20 million Koreans. If a war breaks out, North Korea can only ask for help from the Republic. If it loses, the best outcome of the Kim family is to go into exile overseas; if it wins, the Republic will treat North Korea with the method of treating Vietnam, and the Kim family must abdicate. Regardless of the result, the war is harmful to the Kim family or not.

On August 9, Russian President Yukov made a statement, not only hoping that China and the United States could reach a substantial consensus on peace and stability in Northeast Asia, but also proposed that the six countries of China, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea jointly negotiated to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and the Japanese nuclear issue in accordance with the "Six-Party Talks".

Russia's attitude is completely understandable.

Although Russia had made a clear attitude as early as Putin's administration, it would never make any concessions on the issue of the four northern islands and rejected the "investment and territory plan" proposed by Japan, as long as Japan did not give up its sovereignty claim on the four northern islands, the relationship between Russia and Japan would not be much better.

For Russia, which is in the dilemma of the Great Depression, any war is unbearable.

Nuclear weapons can be used for self-defense, but they can't be used just by wanting to use them.

If Japan makes a fuss about the issue of the four northern islands and makes it clear that it will not use nuclear weapons first, Russia dares to take risks.

, Do you use nuclear weapons in war? If Russia does not use conventional military forces of nuclear weapons, it will not only suffer huge losses, but also have little chance of victory.

For Russia, the best solution is to deal with Japan.

Three neighboring countries have made statements that Japan's nuclear issue has surfaced.

If before 1, the Japanese nuclear issue was not a problem at all, and there would be no Japanese nuclear issue. The problem is that both China and the United States, which are capable of solving the Japanese nuclear issue, have adopted a "waiting and watching attitude", and both hope that the other side can make substantial promises and plan to use the Japanese nuclear issue to attack each other. The result can be imagined.

On August, Frederick was also visiting Beijing and something big happened.

At 9:15 Tokyo time, Japan launched an x-11 ballistic missile from Seedijima Aerospace Center. After about 25, the missile's separated warhead splashed in the waters near Minato Island, and the actual range of the missile exceeded 2,500 kilometers. In the afternoon, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced that the first test launch of the x-11 ballistic missile was a complete success.

At 17:25 Beijing time, after an emergency meeting with Zhao Rundong, Frederick set off to return home.

After seeing off the US President, Zhao Rundong called Pan Yunsheng.

During the dinner, Pan Yunsheng brought Li Cunxun and Liu Xiaobin to the head of state.

"This is a photo taken by the reconnaissance satellite." Li Cunxun spread more than 1c photos on the coffee table. "Because it was daytime, the reconnaissance photos of the ground in the visible light band, with the maximum resolution reaching 0.1 meter. The first five photos were taken before the missile was launched. Although the angle was not very good, using the reference objects next to it, it can be roughly calculated that the missile height is between 18 meters and 20 meters and the diameter is more than 2.1 meter. Comparative analysis with similar launch vehicles, the missile weight is between 75 tons and 80 tons. It can be roughly calculated that the x-11 is a medium- and long-range ballistic missile with a maximum range of about 3,500 kilometers and a carrying capacity between 500 kilograms and 750 kilograms."

Zhao Rundong nodded slightly and looked at the other photos.

"This is a photo of the missile splashing and falling area. We are very lucky. A reconnaissance satellite happened to pass by over Nanniao Island." Liu Xiaobin explained, "Although the photos show that there are many splashing objects, after computer analysis, it can be confirmed that most of them are ground-based bullet fragments when the warhead separates from the missile body, and there are also thermal insulation shield fragments that the warhead departs when it reenters the atmosphere. There is only one warhead. From the range of the splashing area, the warhead's ground-based splashing area exceeds one thousand meters and the hit accuracy exceeds five hundred meters. It can only be used as a strategic deterrent weapon. Judging from the splashing point, the size of the warhead is about three cubic meters and the weight is about five hundred kilograms. If Japan wants to use x-11 as a nuclear weapon carrier, it must make a substantial breakthrough in miniaturization of the nuclear warhead."

Zhao Rundong nodded again and looked at Pan Yunsheng.

"It's not that Japan does not have the ability to create ballistic missiles with a longer range and a larger carrying capacity." Pan Yunsheng put down his teacup and said, "Three conclusions can be drawn from the performance of the x-11. First, Japan has mastered the warhead miniaturization technology, otherwise it will develop ballistic missiles with a stronger carrying capacity. Second, Japan does not want to anger the United States, and the range of the x-11 can only deal with us, not the United States. Third, Japan is working hard to improve missile technology, strive for maneuvering deployment, and improve the survivability of missiles."

“That is, the x-11 is not the final model.”

Pan Yunsheng nodded and gave Li Cunxun a look.

"In the short term, Japan will mainly solve the problem of missile survival, and the prerequisite is missile miniaturization and large-thrust solid rocket engine technology. In this regard, Japan has sufficient technical foundation, and all it takes is time." Li Cunxun paused for a moment and said, "As the number of nuclear warheads that Japan has increased, other carriers will definitely be considered. The most threatening are submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Japan is likely to be building two or three strategic nuclear submarines, which will be put into service within three years. Therefore, Japan will directly use solid rocket engines on the x-11 instead of liquid rocket engines that are easier to master. From various situations, it is a foregone conclusion that Japan has developed ballistic missiles, strategic nuclear submarines, and the production of more than 200 nuclear warheads within three years."

"In the near future, Japan will definitely conduct multiple experiments."

Zhao Rundong nodded and said, "Japan's determination and ability to develop nuclear weapons far exceed our expectations. The question now is whether it is necessary for us to adjust the national strategic defense system."

Pan Yunsheng was late and said, "I think this issue should be discussed on a larger scale."

"Okay, you come here early tomorrow morning." Zhao Rundong looked at the wall clock, "Go for dinner first, let's discuss the details in the evening. Tomorrow, Lao Peng, Pang Xinglong and others will be summoned to re-discuss the progress of the national strategic defense system development and construction."

For the Republic, preparation time is not long.

damn it**

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