Although Japan is a beneficiary of the "appeasement policy", Murakami Sadashi does not...

"Appeasement policy" is a concession, compromise and default attitude adopted by a major country for its own interests at a specific time and in specific events. The prerequisite for the "Appeasement policy" is that the fundamental interests of the major country are not damaged or threatened. As long as this bottom line is exceeded, the attitude of the major country will immediately change.

In history, the most famous "appeasement policy" was the policy of tolerance and condolence before the outbreak of World War II by the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union for the foreign expansion of the fascist countries, and at the expense of other countries' territorial sovereignty and even their own interests, satisfying the fascist invaders and seeking peace and security.

Compared with history, the current scene is so similar.

Sadashi Murakami is very clear about Japan's future. If you take every step well, Japan can go very far, but it does not mean that it can continue to "safely". As long as Japan takes the "last step", it poses a fatal threat to China, or the United States' national interests and national security, forcing China, or the United States to use "last means", the war will break out and Japan will face the test of life and death.

Which step is the "last step"?

Ordinary people can't see it, but smart politicians can see it very clearly.

The key "last step" is whether Japan can have the strategic deterrence ability that poses a fatal threat to any country at the fastest speed before China and the United States react. Before that, no matter what Japan does, China and the United States will "stand by and watch".

Japan's national conditions are quite special and it is impossible to establish a "triangle" strategic strike force like China, the United States and Russia.

Japan has a local area of ​​less than 380,000 square kilometers and a population density of 320 people per square kilometers. Not only does it lack the space to deploy land-based strategic ballistic missiles, it will also "kidnapping" 12 people. Even if the major powers are very restrained and do not implement strategic nuclear retaliation against the entire territory of Japan, and only conduct nuclear strikes on strategic ballistic missile bases and deployed positions, Japan will become a "bad" and the Yamato people will become a direct victim of the war.

For Japan, the ideal choice is strategic bombers and strategic nuclear submarines.

Relatively speaking, the former not only has poor survivability and penetration capabilities, but also has the disadvantages of developing and developing, huge investment, and the need for local bases. The most important thing is that Japan and the Republic are less than 1 kilometer apart. All air bases are within the range of the ground strike of the Republic ground fighter jets, short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Even if strategic bombers take off before the outbreak of the war, whether they can play a role in the war is questionable.

For Japan, the ideal strategic weapon delivery platform is a nuclear submarine.

The survivability, concealment and carrying capacity of strategic nuclear submarines far exceed that of strategic bombers.

Japan is an island country. It faces the vast Pacific Ocean. Strategic nuclear submarines are not subject to any restrictions. The most important thing is that Japan can build strategic nuclear submarine bases in areas far away from the tactical forces of the Republic, and in areas outside the area of ​​the cover of the Japanese tactical air force. For example, the Sulphur Islands, the Dadong Islands and the Xiaoliyuan Islands in a large island in the middle of the islands.

From the very beginning, Sadashi Murakami placed strategic nuclear submarines at the same height as nuclear weapons.

Over the past few years, Sadashi Murakami has made every effort to coordinate the progress of various projects and strive to build a "strategic nuclear submarine system" (a strategic nuclear submarine that truly has strategic deterrence capabilities requires support and cooperation of auxiliary systems including ultra-long-wave/very-long-wave radio communication system, satellite communication system, strategic air command system, strategic navigation system and other auxiliary systems).

In the entire system, submarine-launched strategic ballistic missiles are not the top priority.

Although Japan has very strong scientific and technological strength and a very developed industrial foundation, including the United States, Russia and the Republic, in mainland nuclear powers, encountered many problems when developing submarine-launched strategic ballistic missiles. When the United Kingdom built a "vanguard"-class strategic nuclear submarine, it did not even develop submarine-launched strategic ballistic missiles on its own, and equipped the submarine with "tri-fork missiles introduced from the United States.

Science and technology have their own development laws, and ideology plays a tiny role in promoting it.

When the project was launched, Japanese scientists and engineers seriously underestimated the technical difficulty of submarine-launched strategic ballistic missiles. They did not realize that there was a huge difference between submarine-launched strategic ballistic missiles and land-based ballistic missiles. Instead, they believed that transplanting land-based maneuverable ballistic missiles to nuclear submarines was a very easy task.

On November 17, Japan tested the first zx--1 ballistic missile.

Because zx-11 takes x--1 as its prototype and the two are very similar, the reconnaissance satellites of the Republic and the United States failed to discover that Japan was testing a submarine-launched ballistic missile.

The test launch was not successful. After the missile was launched, the stability system malfunctioned and then fell into the sea and destroyed itself.

Two days later, Japan tested the second zx-11. Although it still ended in failure, the result was slightly better. The missile's first-stage rocket engine was successfully separated from the second-stage rocket engine, but the second-stage rocket engine failed to ignite it smoothly and the missile burned down when it fell.

By the end of November, Japan tested two more zx-11s, all of which ended in failure.

Although the engineers who designed the missiles vowed to solve all problems within the year, Sadashi Murakami has realized the "problem".

If the zx-11 cannot be successfully developed successfully, the strategic nuclear submarine will not be put into service after it is completed.

In early December, Sadashi Murakami adjusted the construction progress of the "strategic nuclear submarine system", slowed down the construction of nuclear submarines again, accelerated the development of zx-11, and proposed a "zz-11" plan to replace zx-11, that is, to develop submarine-launched cruise missiles with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers on the basis of z-11 cruise missile ground, and launch the zx--2~ system plan.

Strictly speaking, zx--2 is the submarine-launched strategic ballistic missile that Japan needs.

Because the performance of x-11 is limited, the performance of zx-11 is not very good, with a maximum range of 350 meters. It carries a warhead without a bait warhead, and the accuracy deviation is more than 500 meters.

zx-2 is a ballistic missile specially developed for strategic nuclear submarines, and its performance indicators are in line with the "Trident" D5 and JL-2b.

Of course, the development difficulty of zx-2~ is far greater than that of zx-11, and is almost unattainable for Japan.

When speeding up the development of submarine-launched strategic ballistic missiles, Japan added the final test work of the x-11 and the development progress of the atomic bomb nuclear warhead.

On November 27, Japan conducted the second underground explosion test of the enhanced fission device.

The experiment was very successful. Japan not only collected a large amount of ground explosion data, laying the foundation for establishing a mathematical model of computer simulated nuclear tests, but also mastered the basic principles of strengthening fission nuclear devices.

The warhead miniaturization project is also proceeding smoothly as planned.

On December 13, when the Republic and the United States ground reconnaissance satellites passed over the mother island, they took photos of Japan preparing for the next nuclear test.

The alarm sounded immediately because Japan was about to conduct an underground explosion test on a nuclear warhead!

Japan's underground nuclear explosion test uses a vertical shaft instead of a relatively low-difficultural inclined shaft. The so-called "vertical shaft" means vertically digging a test well with a depth of over a hundred meters or even hundreds of meters, putting the nuclear device or nuclear warhead at the bottom of the well, and then sealing it with cement. Because large drilling equipment and a large amount of cement are required, the project scale is very large and costly. When North Korea conducted underground nuclear tests, it used a relatively simple inclined shaft. The biggest advantage of a vertical shaft is that it does not require a special choice of terrain, and underground nuclear tests can be carried out at almost any location.

The Military Intelligence Bureau concluded that Japan had tested nuclear devices before, which was a judgment made from the "caliber" of the shaft.

This time, the diameter of the shaft opened by Japan on the parent island was less than 15 meters, which was slightly smaller than the warhead diameter of the x-1 missile, and just met the basic dimension data of the nuclear warhead.

On December 17, Japan tried to explode its first nuclear warhead.

Although it is just an ordinary atomic bomb with an explosion equivalent of less than 20,000 tons, the nature of this nuclear test is completely different from the previous nuclear tests.

Japan has mastered the technology of miniaturizing warheads and has also created nuclear warheads!

Although Japan is unlikely to conduct a "nuclear missile" test launch, because after the nuclear missile test launch, the nuclear warhead will explode in the atmosphere instead of underground, and the impact is very bad, Japan has mastered the warhead's re-entry technology through the previous 1c missile test launches. As long as the nuclear warhead is installed with an x--1 missile, Japan will have strategic strike capabilities.

The only thing that is thankful is that Japan can use it to carry nuclear warheads is the x--1 ballistic missile.

The payload of the y-11 and z-11 cruise missiles is less than kilograms and cannot carry nuclear warheads with a weight of 750 kilograms. Unless Japan makes a greater breakthrough in warhead miniaturization technology, it will be difficult to develop cruise missiles with strategic deterrence capabilities.

What is even more worthwhile is that Japan cannot manufacture thermonuclear weapons in the short term.

Although on December 20, a reconnaissance satellite discovered that Japan started construction of the first heavy water processing plant near Otahiro Hokkaido, Japan still had to build supporting facilities nearby, including power stations and power transmission networks, and could not produce enough thermonuclear weapons within three years.

It can be said that Sadashi Murakami is more cautious when it comes to developing thermonuclear weapons.

If Japan develops atomic bombs with the purpose of "self-defense", it is barely tenable. Then Japan has no "defense reason" to develop a hydrogen bomb, because the power of the hydrogen bomb is far greater than that of the atomic bombs, and it is born with the ability to destroy the entire human world, and the meaning of "attack" is more obvious.

In order to avoid turning against the United States too early and forcing the Republic to take extreme actions, Sadashi Murakami had to be cautious.

Time goes by the end of 20211. Although the Japanese government has not publicly claimed to have nuclear weapons with practical combat capabilities, nor has it announced that it has strategic deterrence capabilities, it has become an indisputable fact that Japan has nuclear weapons and is a nuclear weapon that can be used for practical combat.

There is only one question facing all countries: when will Japan use its sharply increased military strength to war!

damn it**

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